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by Charalambos Pissouros

Will EUR/TRY Fall Below 6.0000 Soon?

EUR/TRY traded in a consolidative manner today, staying near the 6.0550 support zone, slightly above yesterday’s low and also marked by the lows of the 5th and 6th of November. The rate continues to trade within the downward sloping channel that’s been containing most of the price action since the 30th of August, when the pair matched its all-time high of 7.9982, hit on the 13th of that month. It is also trading below all three of our moving averages. Thus, we will consider the outlook to be negative for now.

Having said that though, we would like to see a clear close below the psychological round number of 6.0000 before we get confident on the continuation of the existing downtrend. Such a dip would confirm a forthcoming lower low and is possible to open the way towards the 5.8600 zone, defined by the lows of the 3rd and 6th of August. Another break below that zone could aim for our next support, at 5.7900, marked by the low of the 2nd of August, as well as the peak of the 24th of July.

Both our momentum studies, the RSI and the MACD, lie within their bearish territories, with the latter being also below its trigger line. However, the RSI has turned somewhat up, suggesting that a minor recovery may be looming before the next negative leg.

But as long as such a recovery stays limited below the upper end of the aforementioned channel, or even below 6.2300, we would still see a decent chance for the bears to jump back into the action. We would like to see a clear close above that zone before we start evaluating whether the bulls have taken the upper hand, at least for a while. Such a break could initially aim for our next resistance zone of 6.3700, the break of which could pave the way for the high of the 25th of October, at around 6.5600.

EUR/TRY 4-hour chart technical analysis

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