Ayer, la jornada estuvo repleta de datos y diversas novedades de todo el mundo. Una de las principales noticias de la vida política europea fue en torno a las negociaciones del acuerdo Brexit. Con los mercados estadounidenses cerrados hoy y teniendo medio día el viernes, el país dejó caer una pila de datos ayer para que el mercado los procese.
Cambio de tono en el acuerdo sobre le Brexit
Ayer, la jornada estuvo repleta de datos y diversas noticias de todo el mundo. Una de las principales noticias de la vida política europea fue en torno a las negociaciones del acuerdo Brexit. Si el lunes estuvo lleno de titulares positivos de que hay avances en las conversaciones del Brexit, el miércoles fue un panorama diferente. El aire estaba lleno de escepticismo de que se pudiera llegar a un acuerdo. Boris Johnson aseguró que la posición del Reino Unido sobre la pesca no ha cambiado y que no habrá ninguna extensión del período de transición. La presidenta de la Comisión Europea, Ursula von der Leyen, tuiteó, citando: “Más adelante, obtendremos las actas de la última reunión del FOMC. Los inversores intentarán buscar claridad sobre cómo los políticos están dispuestos a seguir adelante. Durante la reunión anterior, la Fed decidió adoptar un enfoque de cautela , debido a la incertidumbre que rodea a las elecciones estadounidenses. El Comité había declarado la última vez que están dispuestos a utilizar todas las herramientas disponibles para apoyar la economía de Estados Unidos ”. Sin embargo, una vez más, el primer ministro irlandés trató de aclarar la tensión afirmando que cree que se podría llegar a un acuerdo, pero tal vez "por etapas", y que se pueden lograr buenos resultados en la prórroga. Esto, por supuesto, sugiere que Irlanda podría considerar una extensión, si fuera necesario.
En nuestro informe del martes dijimos que el "acuerdo del 95%", que ha sido elogiado a principios de esta semana por ambas partes, no es algo de lo que estar muy contento, ya que se pierden algunos temas importantes como la pesca, la gobernanza y resolución de conflictos. Y como ya sabemos, ninguna de las partes está dispuesta a retroceder en sus posiciones. La libra aún podría permanecer bajo un leve interés de compra, especialmente frente al dólar estadounidense actualmente más débil, ya que todavía no hay grandes titulares negativos oficiales .
GBP/USD – Análisis Técnico
Looking at the technical picture of GBP/USD this morning, we can see that the rate is already knocking on the door of its key resistance barrier, at 1.3397, which is currently the highest point of November. At the same time the pair continues to balance above a short-term upside support line drawn from the low of November 4th. Although everything is pointing towards a continuation move higher, in order to get comfortable with higher areas, at least in the near term, we would prefer to wait for a move above that 1.3397 hurdle first. Until then, we will remain somewhat positive.
If, eventually, the pair does pop above that 1.3397 zone, this move may clear the path for a further uprise, possibly targeting the 1.3482 area, marked by the highest point of September. The rate might stall there for a bit, or even correct back down. That said, if GBP/USD continues to trade above the aforementioned upside line, we could see the bulls stepping in again. If so, another push higher, and this time a break of the 1.3482 obstacle, could send the pair to the highest point of December 2019, at 1.3514.
Alternatively, if the previously-discussed upside line breaks and the rate slides below the 1.3304 hurdle, marked by the low of November 25th, that may scare the bulls from the field temporarily and allow more bears to join in. GBP/USD may then travel to the 1.3263 zone, which is the current low of this week, where the pair could stall temporarily. However, if the sellers are still strong, a break of that zone may result in GBP/USD falling to the 1.3195 hurdle, or the 1.3165 level, marked by the lows of November 19th and 16th respectively.
US Data Release
With the US markets closed today and having a half day on Friday, the country dropped a pile of data yesterday for the market to digest. Also, on the US political side, the new president-elect Joe Biden was in a rush this week to deliver his nominees for different cabinets. But one of the most important news from all that was the fact that Joe Biden nominated and confirmed Janet Yellen as the next head of the Federal Reserve. Before Jerome Powell was assigned by Donald Trump in 2018, Janet Yellen was already the head of the Federal Reserve and held that position for 4 years, between 2014 and 2018. Investors took the news positively, as Yellen is a key supporter of keeping interest rates low, in order to continue supporting the economy.
On the data front, the US released a bunch of key economic indicators, where some came out as a disappointment. The core PCE MoM price index came out slightly lower than expected, at 0.0%, whereas the expectation was for a +0.1% figure. The headline PCE MoM price index also showed up at 0.0%, however there was no initial forecast available, but the previous number was at +0.2%. New home sales declined and personal income dropped, however, personal spending increased slightly. Another disappointment was the preliminary QoQ Q3 GDP figure, which came out as previous +33.1%, missing the initial forecast by a tenth of a percent. But, probably, the biggest setbacks were the initial and continuing jobless claims figures. Initial claims showed up at 778k, which is higher than the forecast of 730k and the previous 748k. Continuing jobless claims were above the forecast, but below the previous, coming out at 6071k. The Dow and the S&P 500 took a slight hit, however the technology sector was still at its best, helping Nasdaq to close slightly in the positive territory.
Nasdaq 100 –
This week, Nasdaq 100 continues to slowly grind higher, trying to get closer to its all-time high on the cash index, at 12465. The index is also trading above a short-term tentative upside support line drawn from the low of November 10th. For now, the price may continue slowly drifting higher, as long as it continues to trade above 12091 hurdle, which is the high of last week.
A further push north could bring the price closer to the 12257 barrier, marked by the high of October 13th and an intraday swing low of November 9th. Nasdaq 100 might get held there temporarily, however, if the buyers are still feeling comfortable, they may overcome that obstacle and target the 12415 barrier, marked by the current highest point of September. Slightly above it lies the all-time high, at 12465, which could get tested as well.
On the downside, if the price breaks the previously discussed upside line and also slides below the 11875 hurdle, marked by the lows of November 20th and 24th, that could open the gate for a further slide. Nasdaq 100 might then drift to the 11800 obstacle, or even to the 11705 zone, marked by the current low of this week and an intraday swing high of November 11th respectively. The index may get halted around there for a bit, but if the sellers are still active, the next possible target might be at 11511, which is the low of November 10th.
A For The Rest Of Today’s Events
During the early hours of the European morning on Thursday, the Swedish central bank will take center stage, as it will deliver its interest rate decision. In the latest monetary policy report delivered by the Riksbank, it states that the Swedish economy has managed to recover somewhat after the sharp decline experienced in spring of this year. The Bank will continue providing support to the economy and it is believed that the repo rate will stay the same, at 0.0%.
Later on, the ECB will publish its account of monetary policy meeting minutes from its October meeting, which might show further monetary easing, in order to continue supporting the eurozone.
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