The technical picture of EUR/TRY on our daily chart shows that, from the beginning of June, the rate has been trading below a short-term tentative downside resistance line taken from the high of June 1st. Although the pair is seen drifted lower, it is currently finding support near the lowest point of June, at 10.045. In order to get comfortable with further declines, a break through that area would be needed. For now, we will take a somewhat bearish approach.
If, eventually, that break happens and EUR/TRY violates the 10.045 hurdle, further declines could be possible, as more bears might join in, due to a forthcoming lower low being confirmed. The pair may slide to the 9.848 obstacle, which is the low of April 28th, where a temporary hold-up could occur. However, if the bears continue to dictate the rules, they might push the pair lower, possibly targeting the 9.770 level. That level is marked near the highs of April 7th, 12th and 15th.
The RSI and the MACD are both pointing lower, at the time of writing. Also, the RSI continues to run below 50 and the MACD sits below zero and its trigger line. The two indicators support the idea of seeing further declines, as both show increasing downside speed of the price.
Alternatively, in order to examine higher areas, a break of the aforementioned downside line and then a push through the 10.315 barrier, marked by the high of July 8th, would be needed. This way, this could result in a change of the current short-term trend, potentially opening the door towards higher areas. EUR/TRY might travel to the 10.497 zone, marked by the high of June 25th, which could pause the upmove for a bit. That said, if the bulls remain strong, they could overcome that zone and aim for the 10.602 area, marked by the high of June 3rd.
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