Weekly Market Outlook (February 24–28)
This week, key economic data releases include U.S. Consumer Confidence, Australia’s Monthly CPI, Tokyo’s CPI, and the U.S. Core PCE Index.
Key Events at a Glance:
- Monday: German Ifo Business Climate Index
- Tuesday: U.S. Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: Australia’s Monthly CPI
- Thursday: Switzerland Q4 GDP, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, U.S. Q4 GDP (2nd estimate), U.S. Jobless Claims
- Friday: Tokyo CPI, France CPI, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. PCE Price Index
Tuesday: U.S. Consumer Confidence
The index is expected at 103.0, down from 104.1 previously. Consumer confidence has declined for two consecutive months but remains within the range established since 2022.
Key insights:
"All five components of the index deteriorated, with the assessment of the present situation seeing the sharpest decline. Notably, views on current labor market conditions weakened for the first time since September, and business conditions deteriorated for the second consecutive month."
Wednesday: Australia’s Monthly CPI
The year-over-year CPI is expected at 2.5%, unchanged from the previous month. Inflation in Australia continues to approach the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2–3%.
Last week, the RBA cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but provided a more hawkish outlook than anticipated. Additionally, the recent employment report showed a resilient labor market.
Thursday: U.S. Jobless Claims
Weekly jobless claims remain a crucial indicator of labor market conditions.
- Initial Claims: Expected at 220K, slightly up from 219K
- Continuing Claims: Last week increased to 1.869M from 1.845M (no consensus available for this week)
Since 2022, initial claims have remained within the 200K–260K range, while continuing claims have hovered around cycle highs, although some easing has been observed recently.
Friday: Tokyo CPI & U.S. PCE Price Index
The Tokyo Core CPI is expected at 2.3% (down from 2.5%). The Japanese yen has strengthened recently due to hawkish comments from BoJ officials, strong wage growth, and solid inflation data.
The U.S. PCE inflation, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, is forecast as follows:
- PCE Y/Y: Expected at 2.5% (previously 2.6%)
- PCE M/M: Expected at 0.3% (previously 0.3%)
- Core PCE Y/Y: Expected at 2.6% (previously 2.8%)
- Core PCE M/M: Expected at 0.3% (previously 0.2%)
Since PCE estimates can be reliably predicted once CPI and PPI data are released, markets are unlikely to react significantly unless the actual figures deviate notably from expectations.
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