Week Ahead: Key Economic Data and Central Bank Decisions

The upcoming trading week brings several important data releases and monetary policy decisions that could provide fresh impulses to the markets. In focus will be US inflation figures (PCE), the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) rate decision, flash PMIs, as well as inflation data from Australia and Tokyo.

Monday

China (PBoC LPR): The People’s Bank of China is expected to leave its loan prime rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 3.00% (1yr) and 3.50% (5yr). While calls for more stimulus remain, near-term pressure has eased somewhat thanks to resilient exports and recent equity market gains.
Eurozone (Consumer Confidence, September, Flash)

Tuesday

Sweden (Riksbank): Analysts are split on whether the bank will cut rates by 25bps to 1.75% or wait until November. Inflation has cooled slightly, but activity data shows mixed signals.
Flash PMIs (EZ, UK, US): Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to edge higher, while services stay steady. UK PMIs could see a minor pullback, particularly in services, as fiscal concerns weigh on sentiment.

Wednesday

Czech Republic (CNB rate decision)
Australia (CPI, August): Headline inflation is expected to tick higher, partly driven by power prices, with some desks warning of upside risks from housing costs.
Germany (ifo Business Climate, September)

Thursday

Switzerland (SNB): After cutting to 0.0% in June, the SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged. Inflation remains subdued, and markets see only a slim chance of negative rates returning.
Mexico (Banxico): A further 25bps rate cut to 7.50% is widely expected. Core inflation remains sticky but is gradually easing.
Japan (BoJ Minutes)
Germany (GfK Consumer Sentiment, October)
United States: Durable goods orders (August), revised Q2 GDP, and PCE for Q2.

Friday

Japan (Tokyo CPI, September): A key leading indicator for nationwide inflation, closely watched ahead of the BoJ’s October policy meeting.
United States (PCE, August): The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to show a slight uptick, with core PCE remaining the main focus.
United States (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September, Final)

📌 Bottom Line:
Next week offers a packed calendar of potential market movers. The US PCE data, alongside Australia’s CPI and the SNB and Riksbank policy meetings, will likely dominate attention. Meanwhile, flash PMIs provide important signals on how the global economy is holding up in Q3.

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