USD/TRY has been trading in a consolidative manner between 5.7875 and 5.8150 since Monday. However, in the somewhat bigger picture, the rate has been printing higher highs and higher lows above an upside support line drawn from the low of November 21st and thus, we would consider the near-term outlook to be somewhat positive for now.
A clear and decisive break above 5.8150 may confirm a forthcoming higher high on the 4-hour chart and may allow extensions towards the 5.8590 resistance zone, marked slightly below the low of October 21st. The bulls may decide to take a break after testing that zone, thereby allowing the rate to retreat somewhat. However, as long as it remains above the aforementioned upside line, we would see decent chances for the bulls to take charge again soon and push for another test near 5.8590. If they manage to overcome that barrier this time around, they may decide to drive all the way up to the 5.8960 area.
Taking a look at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI lies above 50, slightly below 70, but points down, while the MACD, although positive, lies below its trigger line and points south as well. Although both indicators detect positive momentum, the fact that they point down suggests that a small pullback may be in the works before the bulls take charge again.
On the downside, we would like to see a clear and decisive break below 5.7640 before we start examining whether the bears have gained control. Such a move would also bring the rate below the aforementioned upside line and may initially pave the way towards the 5.7315 area, which provided decent support between November 29th and December 4th, the break of which may allow extensions towards the 5.7150 barrier, marked by an inside swing high formed on November 25th.
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