USD/SEK traded in a consolidative manner yesterday, staying between the 8.1650 and 8.2175 barrier. That said, today, it fell slightly below 8.1650 and rebounded back above it. Overall, the pair has been printing lower highs and lower lows below the downside resistance line taken from the high of November 4th, as well as below all three of our moving averages on the 4-hour chart. Therefore, we would consider the near-term outlook to be negative.
Another attempt below 8.1650 may allow the bears to challenge the 8.1235 level, marked by the low of February 26th, 2018, the break of which may extend the slide towards the low of February 21st, 2018, at 8.0600. If that zone is not able to stop the slide either, then the next area to consider as a support may be the 8.0050 territory, marked by the inside swing high of February 19th, 2018.
Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI, already below 50, has turned down again, while the MACD, lies within its negative territory, marginally above its trigger line. It could fall below it soon. Both indicators reveal negative price momentum and support the notion of a downtrend continuation.
In order to start examining the case of a trend reversal to the upside, we would like to see a rebound above 8.3530. The rate would already be above the downside resistance line and may encourage the bulls to climb towards the high of December 21st, at 8.4335. If there are no bears in sight even at that barrier, we could see the recovery extending towards the 8.5135 zone, defined as a resistance by the peak of December 9th.
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