USD/RUB Rallies to Record After Russia Invades Ukraine

USD/RUB skyrocketed overnight after Russia invaded in Ukraine, hitting a new record high fractionally below the round figure of 90.00. Then, the rate gave back some of those instant gains, but even if it continues lower, as long as it stays above the upside support line drawn from the low of February 16^th, we will see a positive near-term picture.

The bulls could recharge from near the 80.95 barrier, marked by the inside swing high of Tuesday, and perhaps climb back up all the way to the round number of 90.00. If they are strong enough to overcome that barrier this time around, they will enter uncharted territory again, and with nor prior highs or inside swing lows to mark resistance zones, we would consider the next one to be around the next psychological number, at 95.00.

Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI, although above 50, turned down and moved back below its 70 line, while the MACD, despite being well above both its zero and trigger lines, shows signs that it could top soon. This adds to our view that the current setback may continue for a while more before the bulls decide to take the reins again.

In order to start examining whether the outlook has turned negative, we would like to see a clear dip below 78.30. This may confirm the break below the aforementioned upside line, but also a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart. The bears could initially dive towards the 76.10 level, marked by the low of Monday, the break of which could extend the fall towards the 74.20/65 are, defined as a support by the lows of February 10^th and 16^th respectively. Another break, below 74.20 could pave the way towards the 72.30 barrier, marked by the low of November 17^th, or even the 70.50 zone, marked by the low of November 10^th.

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