Overall, from around mid-March, USD/RUB continues to form a descending triangle pattern. After yesterday’s rebound from the lower bound of that formation, the pair is now drifting towards the upper side of that triangle. However, if that line stays intact, the rate could reverse back down again and drift lower. We will take a cautiously-bearish approach, at least for now.
A push higher, above the 75.77 barrier, which is the low of April 22nd, could help the pair test the upper side of the aforementioned pattern. If that line continues to hold USD/RUB lower, this could result in another round of selling, possibly bringing the rate down, towards the 74.617 hurdle. That hurdle is marked by an intraday swing high of yesterday. If the selling doesn’t stop there, a further push south could send the pair to the lower bound of the descending triangle, at 72.623.
Looking at our oscillators on the 4-hour chart, the RSI and the MACD are on a slight rise, which could come in line with the idea of seeing a small uprise first. Although the RSI is above 50, it is currently flat. The MACD, despite slowly climbing higher, is still below zero. However, we will not put too much emphasis on our indicators, for now, until they start showing a clear picture.
Alternatively, if the upper side of the triangle breaks, this could lead the pair to some higher areas. That said, in order to get more comfortable with a further upside move, we would like to see a break above the 77.529 barrier, which is near the highs of April 21st and 22nd. If such a move occurs, USD/RUB could then drift to the 79.374 obstacle, a break of which may clear the path to the 80.204 level, marked by the high of March 30th.
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