In the beginning of November, USD/RUB came close to hitting the current highest point of this year, at around 81.325, but then reversed sharply to the downside. The pair continues to form lower highs, while trading below a short-term tentative downside line, drawn from the high of November 13th. That said, the rate seems to be struggling to overcome a support area between the 75.520 and 75.754 levels. In order to examine the downside, we would prefer to wait for a move below that support area first. Until then we will take a cautiously-bearish approach.
If, eventually, we do see a strong move through the above-discussed support area, that will confirm a forthcoming lower low, which means that USD/RUB could end up sliding to the 74.929 zone, which is the low of September 18th. If the selling doesn’t end there, the next potential support area might be at the 74.567 level, marked by the low of September 14th.
Looking at the oscillators on our daily chart, the RSI is currently pointing slightly to the downside, while running below 50. The MACD, although fractionally above its trigger line, still remains in negative waters. The two indicators are still showing negative price momentum, which supports the above-mentioned idea.
On the upside, if the previously mentioned downside line breaks and the rate climbs above the 76.610 barrier, marked by the high of November 19th, that would confirm a forthcoming higher high and might also attract more bulls into the field. USD/RUB might then travel to the 77.030 obstacle, a break of which may set the stage for a test of the high of November 13th, at 77.707
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