From around mid-November, USD/RUB continues to move sideways, within a wide range. The lower bound of the range is roughly between the 72.528 and 72.650 levels, marked by the lowest points of March and December respectively. The upper side of the pattern is roughly between the 76.498 and 76.594 levels, which mark the highest point of January and March respectively. Given that the rate is currently closer to the upper side of the range, there is a greater chance we could see the pair breaking the upper bound and moving further north. However, in order to get comfortable with the upside, we still need to see a violation of the upper side of the range first. Hence our cautiously bullish approach for now.
If, eventually, the upper side of the aforementioned range surrenders and breaks, this will confirm a forthcoming higher high, potentially opening the door for further advances. USD/RUB could rise to the 77.700 hurdle, marked by the high of November 13th, which could temporarily halt the upmove. That said, if the bulls are still feeling comfortable, they may continue to apply pressure on the pair, this way causing it to move to the next possible resistance area, at 78.628, marked by the low of October 29th and November 5th.
Although the RSI is somewhat flat, it still sits above 50. The MACD is just slightly pointing higher, while continuing to run above zero and its trigger line. The two oscillators are showing positive price momentum, this way supporting the idea of waiting for a break of the upper bound of the range first.
Alternatively, if the rate suddenly falls below the 75.218 hurdle, marked by this week’s low, that could open the way to some lower areas within the range. USD/RUB may drop to the 74.330 hurdle, marked near the high of March 18th and the low of March 22nd. If the sellers are still more active than the buyers, they might send the pair to the 73.138 obstacle, or to the lower side of the aforementioned range.
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