Given that oil has fallen under some selling interest lately, some oil-exporting countries have been under pressure too, together with their national currencies. One of those countries is Russia and its Ruble, which continues to weaken against its US counterpart. From the beginning of this summer, USD/RUB has been drifting north, recovering slightly more than half of the losses made in the period between mid-March and the beginning of June. Also, to add a bit more to the current positive move, today the pair has broken one of its key resistance barriers, at 76.00, which is the highest point of August. For now, we will take a bullish approach, especially if the rate stays above that 76.00 hurdle.
A further move north, away from the above-discussed 76.00 barrier, might end up pushing the pair to the 76.98 area, marked by an intraday swing low of April 22nd, where USD/RUB may stall temporarily. It could even correct slightly lower, but if the rate remains above the 76.00 territory, a reversal back to the upside might be possible, as some buyers may see this as a good opportunity to step in. The bulls could drive the pair to the 76.98 hurdle again, a break of which may open the way to the highest point of April, at 77.55.
Looking at the RSI and the MACD on our 4-hour chart, we can see that both indicators are currently pointing higher. In addition to that, the RSI is above 50 and the MACD is above zero and its trigger line. The oscillators show a rising upside price momentum, which supports the idea for a move towards some higher levels in the near term.
Alternatively, if the rate falls back below the previously-mentioned 76.00 zone and also continues to slide below the 74.93 area, marked by the low of September 4th, that may temporarily spook the bulls from the field. That might force the rate to drop to the 74.54 hurdle, a break of which may send USD/RUB towards a short-term tentative upside support line drawn from the low of July 21st.
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