Update on Interest Rate Expectations & ECB Decision on Thursday

This Thursday at 14:15 CET, the ECB will announce its second interest rate decision of the year. The market anticipates another rate cut, which would lower Eurozone interest rates from the current 2.90% to 2.65%.

All eyes will be on the press conference with Christine Lagarde at 14:45 CET. The key question: Will she confirm the market’s expectation of two more rate cuts this year?

Market Expectations for G8FX Interest Rates by Year-End

Expected Rate Cuts:

🔹 Fed: 55 basis points (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
🔹 ECB: 83 basis points (96% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
🔹 BoE: 57 basis points (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
🔹 BoC: 50 basis points (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
🔹 RBA: 52 basis points (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
🔹 RBNZ: 63 basis points (94% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
🔹 SNB: 39 basis points (99% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Expected Rate Hikes:

🔹 BoJ: 34 basis points (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

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