This morning, USD/TRY ended up breaking one of its key resistance areas, between the 13.663 and 13.673 levels, which has been holding the rate down from around mid-January. At the same time the pair is trading above a short-term upside support line taken from the low of January 12th. As long as USD/TRY remains above that broken resistance area, we will stay positive with the near-term outlook.
A further push north could help overcome the 13.836 hurdle, which is the high of January 12th, and clear the way towards the 13.926 zone. That zone is the highest point of January, which might help slow down the upmove for a bit. However, if that zone fails to provide resistance and breaks, the next possible target could be at 14.111, which is an intraday swing low of December 13th, 2021.
The RSI and the MACD are both pointing higher. In addition to that the RSI is above 50 and the MACD is above zero and the trigger line. The two oscillators show positive price momentum, which supports the idea discussed above.
Alternatively, a break of the previously mentioned upside line and a drop below the 13.511 hurdle, marked by the low of February 18th, could scare off some buyers from the arena for a while. USD/TRY may then drift to the low of February 10th, at 13.385, a break of which might set the stage for a move to the 13.243 area. That area marks the low of January 31st.
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