After a second failed attempt to close above the 73.615 barrier, EUR/RUB reversed 180 degrees and is now, once again, drifting in the southern direction. The pair already broke below an important support zone, at 73.040, which may have allowed the bears to take control of the steering wheel. But only for a while more, as EUR/RUB is still above its short-term tentative upside line, which may continue supporting the rate from pushing further down. From the very short-term perspective, we will target slightly lower area, which were last time tested in the end of May, hence why we will take a cautiously-bearish approach for the time being.
A further slide, away from the 73.040 zone, could lead the rate to the 72.540 hurdle, marked by the low of May 31st. Around there, EUR/RUB could test the 20 SMA of the Bollinger bands, which may provide some initial support for the pair. The rate might even rebound a bit, but if it remains below the 73.040 obstacle, this could attract the sellers again and the pair might fall below the 72.540 territory. This is when we will aim for the 71.981 zone, which is the low of May 28th. Around there, EUR/RUB could also test the aforementioned upside line, which may help to hold the rate from falling any further.
Judging by our oscillators, the RSI and the MACD, both are currently showing a few signs of weakness. Although above 50, the RSI started pointing to the downside. The MACD is still above zero and its trigger line, but also started pointing lower. We will continue monitoring our indicators carefully, but first, we would like to see a much clearer picture from them, before putting more emphasis on what they are suggesting.
Alternatively, a strong push above the previously-mentioned 73.615 barrier, could invite even more buyers into the game and may open the door for a test of the area between the 74.007 and the 74.110 levels, marked by the highs of April 1st and March 14th respectively. This area is just slightly above the 200-day EMA. If the buying doesn’t end there, EUR/RUB could make its way a bit higher, where the next potential resistance zone could be seen around the 74.720 obstacle, which marks the highs of March 7th and 8th.
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