The upcoming trading week brings a series of important economic events – some of which may be affected by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Key highlights include the monetary policy decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, and labor market data from both the U.S. and Canada.
On Tuesday, the RBNZ is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. In addition, speeches from key central bankers such as ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey are scheduled. On Wednesday, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes is on the calendar – but only if the U.S. shutdown allows it.
The second half of the week will feature the U.S. weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and Canada’s labor market report (Friday). The spotlight, however, is on the U.S. employment data (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings), scheduled for Friday but uncertain due to the government closure. If the shutdown continues, these numbers could be delayed.
Aside from official government releases, Friday will still bring the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, as it is privately generated. In addition, speeches from Fed Chair Powell and RBA Governor Bullock are also on the agenda.
In summary: Markets will be watching closely for the RBNZ rate decision and Friday’s labor market reports. The big question remains whether the U.S. employment data will be published – their release depends directly on the government’s reopening.
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