Macro Week Ahead Summary (June 30

Macro Week Ahead Summary (June 30–July 4, 2025)

📌 Key Highlights

US: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs, Factory Orders, ADP, Challenger Layoffs
Eurozone: Flash CPI (HICP), German Unemployment, Producer Prices, Retail Sales
Asia: China PMIs (Official & Caixin), BoJ Tankan Survey, Japanese Industrial Output
Switzerland: CPI, Unemployment

⚠️ Reminder: US NFP will be released on Thursday due to the July 4th holiday on Friday.

🇨🇳 China Official PMIs (Mon)

Manufacturing PMI expected to remain in contraction but edge up to 49.8 (prev. 49.5)
Non-Manufacturing likely to hold stable
Focus on new export orders, with recent trade easing and policy support
Broader recovery still tentative

🇯🇵 BoJ Tankan Survey (Tue)

Large manufacturers' sentiment expected to fall to +10 (prev. +12)
Affected by US auto tariffs and global trade headwinds
Services sector likely more resilient thanks to domestic demand
Market watching for reactions to reciprocal tariffs expected July 9

🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash CPI (Tue)

Headline CPI expected at 1.9% Y/Y (unchanged)
Core CPI expected to dip to 2.3% from 2.4%
Weaker services and food inflation to offset energy/goods price gains
A soft print could increase calls for another ECB rate cut, though markets currently price this not before Feb 2026
Watch for any EU-US trade deal headlines, as suggested by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick

🇺🇸 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tue)

Flash PMI was stable at 52.0, a 15-month high
Factory output and hiring rose, backlogs increased
Input prices surged on tariffs, boosting inflation risks
Export orders fell, suggesting limited global demand
Fed likely to remain cautious on rate cuts

🇺🇸 US ADP & Challenger, Layoffs (Wed)

Important labour market precursors ahead of NFP
Will help shape expectations for Fed path

🇨🇭 Swiss CPI (Thu)

May CPI was -0.1% Y/Y, driven by energy and tourism
SNB needs a positive June CPI to validate its 0.0% Q2 forecast
Hotter prints from France and Spain hint upside risk
SNB cut rates in June; outcome could impact future easing pace

🇺🇸 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Thu)

Expected: +129k jobs (prev. 139k)
Unemployment rate steady at 4.2%
Earnings seen at +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.4%)
Powell says labour market is cooling slowly but still strong
Tariff-induced price pressures are rising, keeping Fed in wait-and-see mode
Both upside and downside surprises will likely be politicized by President Trump, who is pressuring for cuts

🇺🇸 US ISM Services PMI (Thu)

Expected to rebound into expansion at 50.3 (prev. 49.9)
Flash data showed decent output but weaker confidence
Backlogs and hiring up, pointing to strong domestic demand
Tariff effects remain visible in price levels
Fed will stay cautious until services inflation eases more meaningfully

🧠 Takeaways for Traders

Rates Market: The Fed is on hold, watching both inflation and jobs. Strong NFP = less chance of cuts.
FX: EUR strength + weak CPI = potential ECB dovish shift. USD sensitive to NFP and ISM Services.
Equities: Sentiment may stay fragile if inflation rebounds or NFP disappoints. Watch for tariff narrative shifts.
Macro Theme: Tariffs, resilient US labour, and mild global disinflation define the week.

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