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Key topics of week 35 with and by Marcus Klebe

Key topics of week 35 with and by Marcus Klebe

2025/08/24
16:50
Marcus Klebe

Marcus Klebe

Daily Market Report, JFD Research

Key Themes of the Week

  • US PCE (Friday) → most important inflation gauge for the Fed. Expected +0.26% M/M, 2.9% Y/Y. Any surprise = big impact (DXY, US Bonds, Nasdaq/S&P).

  • Nvidia Earnings (Wednesday) → AI hype trigger. Q2 rev. est. $45.5B, but outlook may be cautious (China). Guidance = bigger driver than actual numbers.

  • PBoC MLF (Monday) → expected hold, ¥600B injection. China still weak → Asia sentiment.

  • RBA Minutes (Tuesday) & Australia CPI (Wednesday) → key for AUD, broader inflation outlook.

  • ECB Minutes (Thursday) → not much surprise expected, but EUR/USD could react to FX commentary.

  • Tokyo CPI (Friday) → important for BoJ rate expectations, JPY sensitive.

  • Canada GDP (Friday) → relevant for BoC rate path, moves CAD.

Event-by-Event

  • Mon: PBoC MLF (hold expected), German Ifo. → Sentiment check for DAX.

  • Tue: RBA & Riksbank minutes. US Case-Shiller housing. → AUD/SEK moves possible.

  • Wed: Australia CPI, Nvidia earnings. → AUD volatility, NVDA → Tech/Nasdaq trigger.

  • Thu: ECB minutes, US GDP 2nd estimate. → EUR & US Bonds.

  • Fri: Tokyo CPI, US PCE, Canada GDP, EU & DE data. → Volatile weekly close.

Market Outlook

  • DAX / EuroStoxx: downside risk if EU data weak + dovish ECB tone.

  • Nasdaq / S&P: Nvidia = key trigger. Strong → AI rally, weak → risk-off. US PCE is the main driver.

  • FX:

    • EUR/USD → ECB minutes likely neutral, focus on US PCE.

    • AUD/USD → CPI crucial (higher = AUD squeeze).

    • USD/JPY → driven by Tokyo CPI + US PCE.

    • CAD → weak GDP = CAD sell-off.

  • Gold: dependent on USD & US PCE. Higher inflation = pressure on gold.

  • Oil: geopolitics + CAD GDP = secondary drivers.

Weekly focus: Wednesday & Friday (NVDA earnings + US PCE).

  • Before NVDA → tech choppy, lots of gamma flows.

  • Before PCE → FX & rates defensive.

Disclaimer:

The content we produce does not constitute investment advice or investment recommendation (should not be considered as such) and does not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. The Group of Companies of JFD, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by JFD analysts and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions. Accordingly, you should seek, if you consider appropriate, relevant independent professional advice on the investment considered. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements for financial analyses and must therefore be viewed by the reader as marketing information. JFD prohibits the duplication or publication without explicit approval.

There are risks involved with trading of cash equities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consider whether you can tolerate such losses before trading. Please read the full Risk Disclosure (https://www.jfdbrokers.com/en/legal/risk-disclosure).

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