Key Events of the Trading Week

The upcoming week is packed with central bank meetings and major data releases. The FOMC, Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of Canada (BoC) all take the stage, alongside key reports such as US Retail Sales, UK CPI, and labor market data.

Monday

China: August activity data

Tuesday

UK: July labor market report
Italy: Final August CPI
Eurozone: July industrial production
Germany: ZEW survey (September)
US: August retail sales & industrial production
Canada: August CPI

UK Jobs: Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.7%, while wage growth edges higher. Analysts see slower job creation and note ongoing data collection issues by the ONS.

US Retail Sales: Forecast +0.3% MoM. Bank of America notes spending remains solid but growth is weaker among younger households, reflecting softer wage gains.

Canada CPI: Inflation remains within the BoC’s 1–3% range but near the upper bound. With growth and labor markets cooling, expectations for further rate cuts are building.

Wednesday

FOMC Rate Decision (US):
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25%. The move is driven by weaker labor market data and downward revisions to job growth. Some dissent is possible, with a minority pushing for either no move or a larger 50bps cut.
Markets are pricing in another ~70bps of easing by year-end.
Other events: BoC decision, Brazilian central bank, Bank of Indonesia, ECB wage tracker, UK inflation (August), Eurozone final CPI, New Zealand GDP (Q2)

UK CPI: Headline inflation expected to rise to 3.9%. Food and hotel prices add pressure, though airfare inflation is easing. September could see a temporary inflation peak near 4.1%.

Thursday

BoE Rate Decision: Bank Rate expected to stay at 4% (7–2 vote split). Focus will also be on balance sheet reduction (QT), where the pace could be slowed.
Other events: Norges Bank, South African Reserve Bank

Friday

BoJ Rate Decision:
The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.50%. Political uncertainty following the Prime Minister’s resignation may delay normalization. Still, some analysts see a chance of a hike later in 2025.
Other data: Japan CPI (August), UK retail sales (August), Canada retail sales (July)

UK Retail Sales: Expected +0.3% MoM. Despite solid summer sales, retailers remain cautious heading into Q4, with tax uncertainty weighing on consumer sentiment.

👉 In summary:

Main focus: Fed (rate cut expected), BoE (on hold), BoJ (on hold), BoC (watching inflation closely).
Key data: US retail sales, UK inflation, UK labor market, Canada CPI.
Market impact: Fed’s updated projections (“dot plot”), UK & Eurozone inflation, BoJ stance amid political shifts.

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