JFD Brokers Weekly Outlook (May 20

Weekly Outlook (May 20–24, 2025)

Key Focus: UK-EU Summit, RBA Decision, China Data, Global PMIs, Inflation Figures (UK, Canada, Japan)

Monday

China: Industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment rate for April. These will be closely watched as the first data to reflect the impact of recent tariff hikes—though risks may be offset by the 90-day tariff moratorium.
UK-EU Summit in London: Topics include security, fisheries, and youth mobility. The goal is to improve ties, with potential implications for UK/EU/US relations.
Eurozone: Final HICP figures for April.
Canada: Markets closed for Victoria Day.

Tuesday

China: PBoC rate decision – markets expect a 10bps cut to the Loan Prime Rate. This follows a string of recent stimulus measures, including an RRR cut and over CNY 1.5 trillion in support programs.
Australia: The RBA is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.85%. Weak consumer spending, falling building permits, and subdued inflation support the move.
Canada: April CPI data – after inflation dropped to 2.3% Y/Y in March, markets expect a continued cooling trend. Two rate cuts are priced in by year-end.
Eurozone: ECB current account & consumer confidence (May flash), Germany’s PPI.
New Zealand: Trade balance.

Wednesday

Japan: April trade balance.
UK: April CPI – inflation is expected to rebound sharply (forecast: +3.6% Y/Y vs. 2.6%), driven by energy price increases and tax adjustments.
USA: MBA mortgage applications.

Thursday

ECB: April meeting minutes – markets will focus on the discussion around the current policy stance following the recent 25bps rate cut.
Turkey: CBRT inflation report.
Australia & Japan: Preliminary PMIs for May.
UK, Eurozone & USA: Flash PMIs.
USA: Weekly jobless claims.
Canada: Producer prices.

Friday

Japan: April CPI figures.
Germany: Final Q1 GDP.
UK: April retail sales.
USA: New home sales.
Canada: March retail sales.
Eurozone: Negotiated wages Q1.

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