JFD Brokers Market Outlook: Week of June 9th

Market Outlook: Week of June 9th–13th
Focus: UK Labour Market & US Inflation Data

The upcoming week is relatively quiet – as is often the case after the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Moreover, many European markets will remain closed on Monday due to the Whit Monday public holiday.

Tuesday:

Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index
United Kingdom: Key labour market figures including the Average Earnings Index (3m/y), Claimant Count Change, and the Unemployment Rate

Wednesday:

United States: All eyes will be on the CPI inflation report, which is expected to offer insights into potential price pressures from recent tariff developments.

Thursday:

UK: Monthly GDP (m/m)
US: PPI (m/m) and weekly unemployment claims

Friday:

US: Preliminary data from the University of Michigan on Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

What Analysts Are Watching:

Australia:
Last month, Westpac Consumer Sentiment rebounded by 2.2%. This week’s report includes updates on the RBA’s 25 bps rate cut, a softer Q1 GDP, and easing inflation expectations. Analysts expect consumer sentiment to remain supported by stabilizing financial markets.
United Kingdom:
- Average Earnings (3m/y) expected at 5.3% (prior: 5.5%)
- Claimant Count Change: 9.5K (vs. 5.2K prior)
- Unemployment Rate may tick up to 4.6% (from 4.5%)
Labour market data remains somewhat distorted due to data collection issues. Still, signs of a slowing job market and weaker wage growth are becoming more apparent. The Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates again before November.
United States (CPI):
- Core CPI (m/m): 0.3% (prior: 0.2%)
- Headline CPI (m/m): steady at 0.2%
- CPI (y/y): may rise from 2.3% to 2.5%
The data will show whether recent inflation upticks, possibly driven by tariffs, are short-lived or the start of a trend. Key sectors to watch include household goods, electronics, and recreational items.
United States (PPI):
- Core PPI (m/m): expected at 0.3% (prior: –0.4%)
- Headline PPI (m/m): 0.2% (prior: –0.5%)
Last month’s sharp decline in headline PPI masked some rising input costs. Core goods prices had jumped 0.4%, double the recent average. However, shrinking trade margins (–1.6%) indicate mounting pressure on corporate profitability. This week’s release should show a slight rebound, though uncertainty remains.

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