JFD-Brokers Market Outlook: July 14

Key Highlights by Day:

Monday: Quiet start with no major market-moving releases.
Tuesday:
- Canada: CPI (m/m expected at 0.2% vs. 0.6% prior)
- U.S.: CPI (m/m and y/y both expected to rise), Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- U.K.: CPI (y/y and Core y/y expected to remain unchanged)
- U.S.: Core PPI and PPI
Thursday:
- Australia: Employment Change (+20K to +30K expected), Unemployment Rate to hold at 4.1%
- U.S.: Retail Sales (expected +0.2% headline, +0.3% core), Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Japan: National Core CPI (y/y)
- U.S.: Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations

🇨🇦 Canada CPI Outlook

Headline CPI m/m seen easing to 0.2% from 0.6%
Median, Trimmed, and Common CPI y/y expected to stay around 3.0%
Inflation is cooling due to softening wages and services prices.
BoC Rate Cut? If core CPI prints at 2.8% or lower, markets may price in a July rate cut. Otherwise, October remains more likely.

🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Outlook

Core CPI m/m expected at 0.3% (prev. 0.1%)
Headline CPI y/y forecast to rise to 2.6% (prev. 2.4%)
Recent price pressures suggest possible short-term stickiness.
If inflation surprises to the upside, it could delay Fed rate cuts.
Markets will watch if the uptick is temporary or trend-changing.

🇬🇧 U.K. CPI Outlook

CPI y/y expected at 3.4%, Core CPI at 3.5%
Services inflation moderating, wages slowing to around 4.8%
Market expects the BoE to cut rates by 25 bps in August
Further cuts likely to proceed cautiously, not back-to-back.

🇦🇺 Australia Labour Market

Employment expected to rebound by 20K–30K after May’s dip
Unemployment Rate likely steady at 4.1%
Labour force participation could slightly rise to 67.1%
Despite monthly volatility, job market remains broadly stable

🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Sales

Headline Retail Sales m/m: Expected +0.2% (prev. -0.9%)
Core Sales m/m: Expected +0.3% (prev. -0.3%)
Weakness in autos pulled down May data, but e-commerce remains strong
June numbers likely show modest rebound but slowing momentum overall

Bottom Line

Markets are focused on inflation trends and how central banks will react. Surprises in core data, particularly from the U.S. and Canada, could shift expectations quickly. Labor market strength in Australia and consumer resilience in the U.S. will also influence sentiment.

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