From around the end of March, USD/SEK has been drifting lower, but in the beginning of January, the bulls started fighting for the pair again. The price structure is currently of higher lows, which may lead to higher highs as well. However, before getting a bit more comfortable with that idea, we would prefer to wait for a push above one of its key resistance barriers, at 8.430, marked near the highs of December 21st and January 18th. To slightly support the bullish case, USD/SEK is balancing above a short-term tentative upside support line drawn from the low of January 6th. That said, for now, we will take a cautiously-bullish approach and wait for a violation of the 8.430 barrier.
If the 8.430 hurdle surrenders to the bulls, this will confirm a forthcoming higher high, potentially opening the door for further advances. The pair might then travel to the 8.463 obstacle, or even to the 8.49 zone, marked by the high of December 11th. The rate may stall there for a bit, or even correct back down slightly. That said, if it continues to float above the 8.430 territory, USD/SEK could reverse back to the upside again. If this time it is able to overcome the 8.490 area, the next possible target might be the 8.512 and 8.522 levels, marked by the highs of December 9th and 7th respectively.
The RSI and the MACD seems to be pointing to the upside, suggesting there could be more upside to come in the near term. In addition to that, the RSI is sitting above 50 and the MACD is running above zero and fractionally above its trigger line.
Alternatively, if the pair suddenly reverses sharply lower, breaks the aforementioned upside line and then slides below the 8.309 hurdle, marked by the low of January 28th, that could invite more bears into the field. The direction of the current short-term trend might get changed, potentially opening the door for further declines. We will then target the 8.250 zone, or the 8.233 hurdle, marked by the lows of January 25th and 13th respectively. If that area is not able to withstand the bearish pressure, the next aim may be the 8.178 level, marked by the low of January 8th.
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