The technical picture of USD/RUB on our daily chart shows that the pair is now testing one of its key support areas, roughly between the 72.529 and 72.623 levels, marked by the lowest point of December 2020 and the lowest point of March respectively. At the same time the rate continues to trade below a short-term downside resistance line taken from the high of April 15th. USD/RUB is currently showing signs of weakness, meaning further declines might be possible. For now, we will remain bearish, as long as the rate stays below that downside line.
If, eventually, the pair breaks below the previously discussed support area, this will confirm a forthcoming lower low, possibly opening the door for lower levels, as more sellers could join in. USD/RUB may then drift to the low of July 27th, 2020, at 71.430, which could provide a temporary hold-up. The pair might even rebound back up from there. That said, if the rate remains below the above-mentioned downside line, another move lower could be possible. If this time the bears are able to overcome the 71.430 territory, this may clear the pathway towards the 70.485 zone, marked by the lows of July 9th and 13th of 2020.
The RSI and the MACD are pointing slightly lower. In addition to that, the RSI remains below 50 and the MACD had just moved slightly below the trigger line, while continuing to run below zero. The two indicators seem to support the above-mentioned scenario, as they show increasing downside speed of the price.
Alternatively, if the pair reverses north, breaks the aforementioned downside line and then climbs above the 73.737 barrier, marked by the current highest point of June, that might change the direction of the existing downtrend, potentially inviting more buyers into the game. USD/RUB could rise to the 74.617 hurdle, a break of which may lead to the 75.858 zone, marked by the highest point of May.
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