The technical picture of the USD/PLN pair on our 4-hour chart shows that after peaking on March 7th, the rate is now seen drifting lower, while trading below a short-term downside resistance line, drawn from the high of March 8th. That said, from around March 9th, the pair has been struggling to break below the 4.290 hurdle, which is currently acting as a strong support. For now, we will stay bearish and aim for a slightly stronger Polish Zloty against its U.S. counterpart, especially if USD/PLN remains below the downside line.
If, eventually, USD/PLN moves below the 4.290 hurdle and stays below it, more sellers could join in and drag the rate towards the 4.249 zone, marked by the low of March 2nd, where a temporary hold-up may occur. That said, if that obstacle is still no match for the bears, the next possible target might be at 4.167, which is the current lowest point of March.
The RSI and the MACD are both pointing lower. Also, the RSI continues to run below 50 and the MACD continues to move below the signal line, while sitting below zero. The two indicators show negative price momentum, which supports the scenario discussed above.
Alternatively, a break through the previously discussed downside line and then a push above the 4.340 barrier, marked by an intraday swing high of March 14th, may change the direction of the current short-term trend. USD/PLN could travel to yesterday’s high, at 4.396, a break of which might open the door for a move to the 4.481 level. That level marks the high of March 9th.
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