The technical picture on our daily chart of USD/RUB shows that the pair is currently trading below a medium-term tentative downside resistance line drawn from the high of November 2nd. That said, the rate is struggling to go for a lower low, as it continues to balance above the 72.650 hurdle, marked by the lowest point of December. In order to get excited with lower areas, a break of that hurdle would be needed. Hence our somewhat bearish approach for now.
If USD/RUB eventually breaks below the previously discussed 72.650 hurdle, this will confirm a forthcoming lower low, potentially opening the door for further declines, as more sellers could join in. The pair may then fall to the 71.338 zone, marked by the inside swing low of July 20th and the low of July 24th, where it could stall for a bit, or even correct back up. However, if the rate stays below the 72.650 zone, that may invite the bears back into the game, possibly forcing USD/RUB to slide again. If this time it is able to overcome the 71.338 obstacle, the next potential target might be at 70.485, marked by the lows of July 9th and 13th.
The RSI, despite pointing slightly higher, remains below 50. The MACD is still pointing lower and continues to run below zero and its trigger line. The two oscillators are showing negative price momentum, which supports the idea of seeing more declines later on.
Alternatively, if the pair overcomes the previously mentioned downside line and then rises above the 75.305 barrier, marked by the lows of February 2nd and 4th, that could attract more buyers, as this move might signal a change of the current downtrend. USD/RUB may then rise to the highest point of January, at 76.498, a break of which might clear the way for further advances. The next potential resistance area could be at 77.700, marked by the high of November 13th.
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