From around the end of August, TRY/JPY has been gradually moving higher and forming higher lows. That said, from around mid-September the pair stopped hitting higher highs and continues to be held by the 19.110 resistance barrier. Today, we are seeing another attempt by the bulls to lift the rate higher, but so far, they continue to struggle to bypass that barrier. Given everything what was mentioned above, we will stay cautiously-bullish, at least for now.
In order to get comfortable with higher areas, we need to see a break of the 19.110 barrier first, as such a move will confirm a forthcoming higher high. This is when we will aim for the 19.215 obstacle, which is the high of August 13th, a break of which could clear the path to the 19.420 level. That level is marked by the high of August 8th.
Looking at our oscillators, the RSI and the MACD, both seem to be somewhat in support of the above-discussed scenario. The RSI is above 50 and points to the upside. The MACD is relatively flat and keeps on balancing near its trigger line, but continues to run above zero.
Alternatively, for us to start examining lower areas, we would wait for a clear break of the aforementioned upside line and for a rate-drop below the 18.860 hurdle, marked by the low of September 26th. Only then we will aim for the next possible strong area of support, at 18.680, which is the low of September 20. Initially, the pair might stall around there, or even correct back up a bit. But if TRY/JPY struggles to move back above the above-mentioned 18.860 hurdle, this may invite the sellers back into the game and the pair might drift back down again. If this time the rate is able to bypass the 18.680 obstacle, the next potential support zone could be seen around the 18.515 level, marked by the low of September 10th.
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