The EURCHF currency pair was able to stabilize as expected and stop the sharp downward waves from the summer of 2024. The currency pair has begun to move sideways.
Our main scenario currently sees an extension of this sideways phase between 0.9500 – 0.9600 on the upside and 0.9200 on the downside. This may extend for a few months. However, a bearish note remains, and a breakout on the downside is currently favored over a breakout on the upside. We see a potential for more downside moves, especially in the second half of 2025.
Should the currency pair rise sustainably above the 0.9500 – 0.9600 zone again, there is a follow-up potential up to approximately 0.98500. At this level, the franc bulls should take over again.
*Analysis from 11.09.2024*
EURCHF – Volatile sideways?
The EURCHF currency pair is in a long-term downward trend. This means that the Swiss franc is appreciating against the euro. However, the exchange rate of the currency pair is currently unchanged from the beginning of the year.
From a technical perspective, the currency pair is in a long- and medium-term downtrend, but bearish exaggerations on the downside have been consolidated or not sold off even more dynamically. Although the chart does little to encourage euro bulls, there is little upside for the Swiss franc either. Rather, a volatile sideways phase is analytically preferred, which oscillates between 0.95 and 0.90 CHF.
Only below 0.90 CHF can it go down again dynamically. However, this is currently clearly the alternative scenario.
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