Today, we saw EUR/TRY making a strong jump, which led to a break above February’s high, at 9.078. At the same time, the pair continues to trade above a short-term tentative upside support line, taken from the low of February 18th. As long as that upside line stays intact, we will stay positive with the near-term outlook.
A further push north may send the rate to the 9.137 obstacle, or to the 9.200 zone, marked by the highs of January 11th and December 31st respectively. EUR/TRY might retrace back down a bit, however, if it continues to trade above previously discussed 9.078 hurdle, or the aforementioned upside line, new buyers might join in. If so, this could lead the pair back to the 9.200 territory, a break of which could set the stage for a push to the 9.249 level, marked by the high of December 28th.
The RSI and the MACD are pointing higher. The RSI is above 50 and the MACD had just moved above its trigger line, while continuing to run above zero. The two indicators show positive price momentum, which supports the above-mentioned scenario.
Alternatively, if the rate reverses sharply lower, breaks the aforementioned upside line and then falls below the 8.916 hurdle, marked near the lows of March 4th and 5th, that may attract more sellers into the game. EUR/TRY could then drift to the low of March 3rd, at 8.811, a break of which may set the stage for a push to the 8.695 level, marked by the current lowest point of March.
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