Looking at the technical picture of EUR/PLN on our daily chart, we can see that the pair has moved below a short-term tentative upside support line drawn from the low of March 16th. At the same time, the rate continues to run below a short-term tentative downside resistance line taken from the high of March 8th. As long as EUR/PLN remains below both of those trendlines, we will stay bearish, at least with the near-term outlook.
A further decline could bring the rate closer to the 4.649 hurdle, marked by the current lowest point of March, where a temporary hold-up may occur. EUR/PLN might even rebound somewhat, however, if it stays below both of the aforementioned trendlines, another decline could be possible. If this time the pair is able to overcome the 4.649 obstacle, this will confirm a forthcoming lower low, possibly opening the door towards the 4.601 level, marked by the highest point of January.
The RSI and the MACD are both pointing lower. In addition to that, the RSI had just dropped below 50 and the MACD, despite sitting just fractionally above zero, continues to run below the signal line. The two oscillators seem to support the above-mentioned scenario, as both show fading-away positive price momentum.
Alternatively, if the rate breaks through the previously discussed downside line and then rises above the 4.737 barrier, marked by the high of March 28th, that may open the door towards higher areas, as such a move may signal a chance in the direction of the current short-term trend. EUR/PLN could travel to the high of last week, at 4.775, a break of which might set the stage for a move to the 4.806 level. That level marks the high of March 11th.
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