Central Bank Meetings and Geopolitical Risks Set to Dominate the Week Ahead

Next week could prove pivotal for global monetary policy, with several major central banks scheduled to announce key decisions:

Tuesday: Bank of Japan
Wednesday: Federal Reserve
Thursday: Swiss National Bank and Bank of England

While the BoJ, Fed, and BoE are expected to hold rates steady, the Swiss National Bank is forecasted to cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.0%, in what could be another step in the global trend toward policy easing.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve, not just for the rate decision, but also for the release of updated economic projections and the closely watched dot plot, which outlines policymakers’ expectations for future rate moves.

President Trump continues to push publicly for a 100 basis point rate cut, but Fed officials have signaled no urgency to act. Before entering the mandatory pre-meeting "blackout" period, policymakers cited ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs and their unclear impact on inflation, employment, and economic growth.

A Complex Backdrop for the Fed

The economic backdrop for the Fed has grown increasingly complicated:

Rising oil prices
Escalating tensions in the Middle East (Iran–Israel)
Steady U.S. economic growth

Together, these factors suggest the Fed may remain on hold for now. However, if a surprise does occur, recently softer inflation readings (CPI, PPI) could offer justification for a modest rate cut, especially as other central banks begin to ease policy.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan appears committed to its ultra-loose stance, with no signs of tightening on the horizon.

Other Key Events Next Week:

Tuesday: U.S. retail sales
Wednesday/Thursday: Australian employment data
Friday: UK retail sales

Geopolitical Risks Also in the Spotlight

Geopolitical tensions are likely to dominate headlines as well. The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and continued uncertainty around U.S. trade policy remain unresolved. Despite the Trump administration’s high-profile “Saudi Roadshow,” there’s been little progress on broader trade negotiations—aside from talk of a revised China deal.

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