Although, from around mid-last week, EUR/TRY continues to move in a short-term range between the 9.427 and 9.536 levels, at the same time, the pair is balancing above a short-term upside line drawn from the low of November 27th. There is a good chance for the rate to move higher again, however, we will get a bit more comfortable with that idea, if we see a break, not only above the upper side of the aforementioned range, but also above the 9.600 barrier, which is the current highest point of December. Until then, we will take a cautiously bullish approach.
If the pair, eventually, does overcome the above-mentioned 9.600 barrier, that will confirm a forthcoming higher high and more buyers might step in. This move could open the way to the 9.683 obstacle, which if broken may lead EUR/TRY to the 9.828 level. That level is marked by an intraday swing high of November 10th.
The RSI is still pointing higher, while continuing to balance above 50. The MACD has just popped fractionally above zero and its trigger line. The two oscillators show increasing upside price momentum, which supports the above-discussed scenario.
Alternatively, if the rate breaks the aforementioned upside line and then slides below the lower side of the previously mentioned range, at 9.427, that might spook new buyers from the arena for a while. The sellers may drag EUR/TRY to the 9.253 hurdle, marked by the low of November 27th, which could provide a temporary hold-up. The rate may even rebound somewhat, however, if the bulls are not able to lift the pair back above that upside line, another slide might be possible. The pair may then fall back to the 9.253 zone, a break of which could set the stage for a move to the 9.130 level, marked by the inside swing high of November 20th.
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