After finding support near the 344.40 hurdle in the end of August, the Aviva Plc stock (LON: AV) moved back up again and is now testing the July high, at 436.80. At the same time, the stock is trading above its short-term upside support line taken from the low of October 8th. Although the price might continue moving further in the northern direction, before we could get comfortable with that idea, we would like to see a daily close above the July high first. This is why we will stay cautiously-bullish, at least in the short run.
If, eventually, we get a daily close above the 436.80 barrier, which is the highest point of July, this may attract more buyers into the game and the price could rise even higher. Such a move could bring the stock to the 442.30 obstacle, a break of which may lead to a further move higher, possibly aiming for the 449.90 level. That level marks the low of October 10th, 2018.
Looking at our oscillators, the RSI and the MACD on the 4-hour chart, we can see that both are still somewhat in support of the above-discussed scenario. The RSI is above 50 and points slightly higher. The MACD, although is fractionally below the trigger line, is still above zero, but currently remains somewhat flat.
Alternatively, in order to examine the downside again, a break of the aforementioned upside line and a price-drop below the 426.30 hurdle, which is the low of last week, are needed. This way, AV could clear the path for itself to the 419.30 obstacle, which if broken might lead to even further declines. This is when we will examine the possibility of seeing a test of the 406.60 level, marked by the low of October 31st.
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