After opening with a positive gap above 3920 on Monday, BTC/USD had been trading in a consolidative manner between that hurdle and the 4070 zone, but only up until today. During the early European morning, the crypto slid, falling back below the 3920 barrier, a move that also brought it below the upside support line taken from the low of the 14th of December. In our view, this has turned the short-term outlook back to the downside.
Now the price is hovering slightly above the 3700 support and if the bears find the strength to break it, then we may see them targeting the low of the 27th of December, at around 3550. Another break below that level could set the stage for larger bearish extensions, perhaps towards the 3280 zone, or even lower, towards the 3125 area, defined by the low of the 14th of December.
Taking a look at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI slid but bottomed marginally above its 30 line. The MACD lies slightly below both its zero and trigger lines. Both indicators detect negative momentum, but the fact that the RSI rebounded somewhat from near 30 make as cautious that a small corrective bounce may be looming, perhaps for the crypto to test the 3920 zone, or the aforementioned upside line, as a resistance this time.
In order to start examining whether the short-term outlook has turned to somewhat positive, we would like to see a clear recovery above 4070, as well as above the downside resistance line drawn from the high of the 29th of November. Such a move would also bring the price above the 200-EMA and may initially open the path for the 4400 area. Another break above 4400 could encourage the bulls to put the 4630 zone on their radars. That resistance is marked by the high of the 21st of November.
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Copyright 2019 JFD Group Ltd.
Copyright 2019 JFD Group Ltd.