AUD/NZD has been in a rising mode since April 25th, when it hit support near the 1.0825 barrier. Overall, the pair has been trading in an uptrend since November 18th, as marked by an upside support line drawn from the low of that day. Thus, we will consider the medium-term outlook of this pair to still be positive.
We believe that soon the bulls will test again the round figure of 1.1000, marked by the peak of April 20th, where a break would confirm a forthcoming higher high. Even if they liquidate again there and allow a slide, as long as that slide remains above the aforementioned upside line, we will consider it as a corrective retreat before another leg of buying. In case of such a rebound, we would expect the rate to overcome the 1.1000 zone and perhaps challenge the 1.1045 barrier, marked by the high of August 18th. Another break, above 1.1045, could carry larger bullish implications, perhaps setting the stage for advances towards the high of August 9th, 2018.
Shifting attention to our daily oscillators, we see that the RSI rebounded from near its 30 line, while the MACD, although still below its trigger line, remains positive and points up. It could cross above that trigger line soon. Both indicators detect increasing upside speed and support the notion for this exchange rate to continue its journey north.
On the downside, we would like to see a clear break below 1.0755 before we start examining a bearish reversal. This could confirm the break below the upside support line drawn from the low of November 18th, and may see scope for declines towards the 1.0665 zone, marked by the low of February 24th, the break of which could carry extensions towards the 1.0610 or 1.0570 zones, marked by the lows of March 15th and January 17th, respectively. Another break, below 1.0570, could encourage the bears to dive towards the 1.0500 zone, marked by the inside swing high of November 25th.
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