AUD/JPY traded somewhat higher yesterday, after it hit support at 79.05. However, the recovery remained limited near the 79.83 barrier, and today, during the Asian trading, the bears took charge and pushed the pair back down. Overall, AUD/JPY continues to trade below the downtrend line drawn from the high of September 7th, and thus, we would consider the short-term outlook to still be negative.
If the bears are willing to stay in the driver’s seat, we would expect them to soon target once again the 79.05 barrier, the break of which would confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and perhaps set the stage for declines towards an intraday swing high formed on August 20th, at 78.53. If the slide does not stop there, then we could experience extensions towards the low of that day, at around 77.90.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned down from slightly below its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, remains above its trigger line. Both indicators detect negative momentum, supporting the notion for further declines, but the fact that the MACD is still above its trigger line, makes us a bit cautious, and that’s why we prefer to wait for a dip below 79.05 before we start examining a trend continuation.
Now, the move that would change the short-term outlook to positive may be a recovery back above 80.50, the high of September 17th. The rate will already be above the aforementioned downtrend line and may see scope for advances towards the 81.15 resistance level, marked by the high of September 14th. Another break, above 81.15, could extend the gains towards the 81.42 or 81.65 barriers, marked by the highs of September 10th and 8th respectively.
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