Looking at the bigger picture, AUD/JPY continues to trade within a rising channel since around the 22nd of March. But yesterday’s trading was dictated by the bears, who drove the pair lower, towards the middle of that channel. From the short-term perspective, we could see a continuation to the downside, targeting the lower bound of the channel.
For now, we will remain bearish and aim for lower levels. Another break below the 82.60 area could lead to a test of yesterday’s lows of around 82.35. If the bears remain in the driver’s seat, then AUD/JPY could end up falling to the 82.00 level, a break of which is likely to open the path towards the 81.50 zone. Slightly below that zone lies the lower bound of the aforementioned channel.
We could also see bit of retracement to the upside towards the 83.00 level, from which AUD/JPY could fall back down and make its move lower, towards the previously mentioned levels.
The RSI, already below 50, has continued drifting lower, heading towards its 20 zone. The MACD is below both its zero and its trigger lines, pointing down as well. Both oscillators are indicating weakness for AUD/JPY.
Alternatively, a break above the 83.00 mark could interest the bulls to drive the pair a bit higher to test the 83.40 level, or even the 83.50 area. If the area is not able to stop the rate from rising, the AUD/JPY could make its way back up to the 84.00 zone.
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