The technical picture of USD/RUB on our 4-hour chart shows that from around mid-June the rate has been moving higher, while trading inside a rising channel pattern. So far, the boundaries of that formation are respected and after testing the upper side of that channel, USD/RUB corrected slightly lower. Even if the pair drifts a bit more to the downside, as long as the boundaries of that pattern stay intact, we will remain positive, at least with the near-term outlook.
A small decline could bring the rate to the 72.805 hurdle, marked by the current lowest point of July, where a slight hold-up might occur. Even if the pair drifts a bit lower, as long as it stays somewhere above the lower side of the aforementioned rising channel, we will overall stay positive, at least for now. The bulls may take advantage of the lower rate and send it north again, possibly aiming for the 73.229 obstacle, or for the 73.800 barrier, marked by the current highest point of July. If the buying doesn’t stop there, a break of that barrier would confirm a forthcoming higher high, possibly sending USD/RUB towards the upper bound of that channel, where the pair could stall for a bit.
The RSI and the MACD are both slightly on the flat side, at the time of writing. That said, the RSI remains above 50 and the MACD is above the trigger line and well above zero. For now, the two oscillators indicate positive price momentum, which, overall, comes in line with the above-mentioned scenario.
Alternatively, if the pair ends up breaking below the lower side of the rising channel and then falls through the 72.304 hurdle, marked by the inside swing high of June 28th, that could spook the bulls from the field temporarily, possibly attracting more sellers into the game. USD/RUB could travel to the low of June 25th, at 72.035, a break of which may open the path to even lower areas. That’s when we might initially aim for the 71.618 hurdle, marked by the low of June 16th, or for the 71.547 level, which is the lowest point of June.
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