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Melina DELTASJunior Market Analyst

Items filtered by date: September 2016

Friday, 30 September 2016 07:36

WTI Hit its Highest Level Since August

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) created the second green day in a row and challenged the $48.65 resistance level. A first production cut in 8 years OPEC announced on Wednesday and highlights the frustration that oil nations feel about the 50% drop in crude prices over the last 2 years.

The oil recorded a fresh one-month high and broke the descending trend line which was holding since June to the upside. Currently, the price is moving below the falling trend line and is in progress to create a correction to the downside. The next level to watch is the $46.70 support level which overlaps with the 50-SMA on the 1-hour chart and the $44.35 where the price has to go through the three SMAs to challenge the latter level. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart, are biased higher after entering the positive territory and turning neutral. The MACD oscillator is flattening in a positive territory while the RSI oscillator is following a positive path but is sloping downwards.

WTICrudeH4300916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Friday, 30 September 2016 07:35

Gold Profit Locked at $1,318!

The yellow metal is still trading in a descending triangle over the daily chart, as it failed several times to break the falling trend line to the upside and the strong support level at the $1,306 to the downside. Over the last four days, the XAU/USD pair plunged more than 1.2% and recorded the fourth consecutive daily candle.

On our Wednesday’s analysis, we recommended an entry level at $1,325 price level and a first target at $1,318 where the price hit yesterday (see our analysis here: http://bit.ly/2dpkvEZ).

From the technical point of view, the precise metal now is moving slightly below the 100-daily SMA which seems to be a strong resistance for the bears while the 50-daily SMA coincides with the $1,333 barrier. Going to a lower timeframe, the 50-SMA had a bullish crossover with the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA so if the price surpasses the latter obstacles will expose to $1,333 resistance level. On the other hand, a rebound is possible on the three SMAs and the continuation of the downward movement. Technical indicators are rising and there are approaching their mid-levels.

XAUUSDH4300916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 28 September 2016 06:36

Gold Suggested Target Booked at $1,325!

The yellow metal continues to be confined within a descending triangle over the last three months and during Monday’s session retested the falling trend line without managing to break above it. Over yesterday’s period, the XAU/USD pair plunged more than 0.8%, following the failed attempt above the aforementioned obstacle, which seems to be a strong resistance level for the bears. The price challenged the $1,344 barrier which is a two-week high and now is trading near the $1,325 price level slightly below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. In addition, the price slip below the 50-daily SMA which is a good bearish signal.

On our Monday’s analysis (JFD’s weekly strategic report), we recommended an entry level at $1,337 price level and a first target at $1,325 where the price hit yesterday (see our analysis here: http://bit.ly/2d5veXd).

The next initial targets are the $1,318 support level and moreover the $1,306 strong obstacle, as it coincides with the lower band of the descending triangle. On the other hand, a level to watch upwards is the $1,331 resistance level on the 1-hour chart. Technical indicator seems to be in agreement with the downward movement since both of them are following a negative path. The MACD oscillator has just entered a negative territory while the RSI indicator is moving below the 50 level.

XAUUSDH4280916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Thursday, 22 September 2016 07:19

Gold is Moving in a Descending Triangle

The precious metal continues to be confined within a symmetrical pattern. The XAU/USD pair yesterday had a rebound on the $1,306 price level and recorded the fourth consecutive positive candle. Also, the yellow metal surged more than 1.3% and now is trading between the aforementioned obstacle and the $1,341 price level.

The consolidation in this pair over the last couple of weeks, which previously looked like a triangle – a continuation pattern – has now become a descending triangle. This is typically a bearish pattern, regardless of whether it appears in an uptrend or a downtrend. What this does suggest is that following very aggressive rally over the last couple of weeks, we may finally be about to see a proper retracement. This could also potentially be a longer term trend reversal, although at this stage I see no evidence of this and will, therefore, treat it as a retracement. For the next sessions, the next level to watch is the $1,341 resistance level which overlaps with the descending trend line and even more will probably retest the $1,352 barrier. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart, are moving in an overbought area with strong momentum confirming the upward potential move on price.

XAUUSDH4220916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Tuesday, 20 September 2016 05:56

Gold is Moving in a Symmetrical Triangle

The precious metal continues to be confined within a symmetrical pattern. The XAU/USD pair is nearing the apex of the triangle and a breakout is expected anytime soon. The metal has finished the previous week lower -1.33% it started this week with a positive candle ahead of the FOMC meeting.

The consolidation in this pair over the last couple of weeks, which previously looked like a triangle – a continuation pattern – has now become a descending triangle. This is typically a bearish pattern, regardless of whether it appears in an uptrend or a downtrend. What this does suggest is that following very aggressive rally over the last couple of weeks, we may finally be about to see a proper retracement. This could also potentially be a longer term trend reversal, although at this stage I see no evidence of this and will, therefore, treat it as a retracement. With this in mind, the next key level of support for the yellow metal, and therefore potential reversal, is $1,300. This is a significant level since it coincides with the long-term ascending trendline. Below here we have the 200-SMA, which also roughly coincides with a previous level of resistance. At the moment, this looks like the most likely point of reversal for the pair, although this is of course just a guess at this stage. When it comes to spotting the reversal, the lower time frames should give the best clues.

XAUUSDdaily200916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Monday, 19 September 2016 05:07

WTI Bulls are Aiming at $45.60

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged 6.8% the previous week, however, during the Asian session it gained momentum and remained above the significant zone of $43.00 - $43.30. WTI is trading near $44.40 as inventory data has been mixed and energy prices are under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.

The Texas light sweet is expected to continue moving in a pattern ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting at the end of September, where OPEC and non-OPEC members could reach an agreement to freeze oil production output. Technically, the WTI trades uneventfully around $44.40, finding buying interest on approaches to the $45.00 level. On the 4-hour chart, the price continues developing well below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators hold within negative territory, although with no clear directional strength. For now, we should expect the price to reach $45.60 before retracing back to the $44.00 region. This former is significant as it includes the 50-SMA, the 100-SMA, and the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart, as well as the 50-SMA on the daily chart. 

WTICrudeH4190916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Friday, 09 September 2016 08:32

XAU/USD Remained in Descending Triangle

The precious metal failed to overcome the significant obstacle at $1,352, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending triangle and it continues to be confined within the pattern. Following the aggressive sell-off after the ECB policy meeting, the gold managed to hold steady on early Friday, taking some minor support from the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart, near $1,335.

The yellow metal has given up some of its strong gains from earlier this week, when weak U.S. NFP data led investors to bet that a September hike by the Fed was no longer on the cards, weakening the greenback.  Therefore, the September Fed meeting will be very crucial for the gold traders and should watch this very closely. Until then – 21 September – we should expect the gold to move within the pattern, and the next level to watch for is the $1,330 barrier.

XAUUSDH4090916

Published in Commodites & Metals
Thursday, 08 September 2016 07:41

Gold: Profit Locked Once More; What is Next?

The XAU/USD pair has had another solid session on Tuesday, climbing from a low of $1,328 to finish at $1,352, taking our suggested profit at $1,341 (http://bit.ly/2bZYnQb). The precious metal now has completed five consecutive positive sessions, extending the weekly gains to 1.7%. According to the 4-hour momentum indicators further gains look possible, where the initial targets will be at $1,352, the previous high, and then $1,367.

The lower timeframes are still showing some bearish divergence so some caution is warranted on the downside. It should be noted, that the $1,352 mark is a significant level over the short and medium terms, as it coincides with the upper boundary of the descending triangle pattern (daily chart). The $1,300 level remains the key support for the medium term, which includes the daily 100-SMA. All in all, the daily chart certainly suggests we are due some gold strength.

XAUUSDH4080916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 07 September 2016 07:15

Gold Booked Profit at $1,341

The yellow metal rose more than 2% over the last two days and created a new two-week high. The XAU/USD pair is recording the sixth consecutive green day and penetrated the daily descending trend line to the upside. Additionally, during yesterday’s session the precious metal exposed to the $1,352 resistance level and surpassed above our suggested target for the bulls at $1,341 (see the technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2c6nqhB ).

From the technical point of view, on the 4-hour chart, the technical indicators are moving with very strong momentum above their overbought level. The MACD oscillator is moving well above from its zero and trigger lines while the RSI indicator is flat but above the 70 level. The three SMAs are sloping upwards and they are moving below the price. Even more, a break above the $1,352 barrier will open the doors for the $1,358 and the $1,367 resistance levels.

XAUUSDH4070916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Tuesday, 06 September 2016 07:04

Brent Crude Oil: Target Locked at $48.90

The Brent Crude Oil is still looking much more bullish, following the aggressive pullback from the $45.40 support level. The oil is creating the third consecutive positive day and surged more than 2.3% during yesterday’s session. The price surpassed above the 200-SMA while is currently trading slightly below the 100-SMA and 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. On our yesterday’s session, we suggested an entry level above the $47.30 barrier and a target at $48.90 resistance level. The price reached our mentioned target and challenged the $49.46 resistance level (see technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2bT29xp). Technical indicators are endorsing the bullish tone since are rising the last couple of days. The MACD oscillator holds in a neutral area while the RSI indicator is following a positive path.

BrentCrudeH4060916.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
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