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Melina DELTASJunior Market Analyst

Items filtered by date: June 2016

Thursday, 30 June 2016 08:18

Gold: An Upward Move is Expected

One of the big winners of the Brexit referendum has been gold, as financial markets had an aggressive sell-off instead of the metal which had a sharp upside move until the new 2-year high, $1,358. The yellow metal is trading in consolidation the last 5 days between $1,306 and $1,335 with the price tested the 200-SMA on the weekly chart, confirming our thought for further upside potential move. A break above the mentioned resistance level will expose to the $1,358 price level. Alternatively, a fall below the support level $1,306 will open the door for the $1,250 strong support level. Technical indicators are still in the positive area endorsing our bullish scenario.


Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 22 June 2016 11:23

XAU/USD On Possible Correction

Gold futures extended losses from the previous session in European trade on Wednesday, falling to the lowest level in almost two weeks as investors looked ahead to Thursday’s referendum on whether Britain will choose to remain in the European Union or not.

The yellow metal consolidates over a month below the psychological level of $1,300. The XAU/USD pair is under pressure to deliver a red week, -0.56%, as is on track to deliver another negative session which will be the third in a row. The price bounced from the 50-SMA on the daily chart and found a difficulty to fell below. The same happened on the 4-hour chart with the 100-SMA.

Having in mind the above, if the price declines over the referred obstacles then it will meet the $1,250 barrier which coincides with the 200-day SMA. The alternative scenario for the precious metal is to rise until the $1,300, after taking out the $1,275 resistance level. In addition, the momentum indicators have turned lower but are still in a positive territory. The MACD oscillator crossed its trigger line to the downside while the RSI indicator is sloping downwards and is close to enter the negative territory.


Published in Commodites & Metals
Tuesday, 21 June 2016 11:05

UK Brent Oil Weekly Outlook

Oil prices pushed lower in European trade on Tuesday, falling for the first time in three days as the market remain focused on the Brexit concerns. The UK Brent crude oil managed to remain above the critical level of $50.00 and it gets a strong support from the 50-SMA on the daily chart.

On the 4-hour chart, the Brent crude oil is currently trading above the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, as well as above the 200-SMA. Looking at the daily chart, the moving averages support the bullish picture since the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA crossed the 200-SMA. Therefore, a break above the $51.00 level should then challenge the next obstacle at $52.30. Technical indicators, MACD endorse the bullish scenario since it is in a positive territory, whilst the RSI oscillator is in a positive area but is sloping downwards. The levels to watch to the downside will be the $47.00 and then the $42.50 – $43.50 zone. For now, however, the trend remains upward based on short term charts and will require a larger decline in order to begin to put downward direction.


Published in Commodites & Metals

XAU/USD was down for a second session on Tuesday, after rising as high as $1,315 the previous week. The precious metal has been firmly capped below the psychological level at $1,300 since January 2015, having made several failed attempts over the last few weeks at closing (daily) above that critical level.

It may be too early to say that the yellow metal is looking bullish again following such a long period of consolidation below the psychological level of $1,300. Ahead of the EU referendum, the volatility is likely to increase, having in mind that traders are using the precious metal as a "safe haven" asset. However, looking at the 4-hour, momentum indicators point to further losses, where the initial targets will be at $1,255, where the 50-SMA is ready to provide some support to the price action. The lower timeframes are still showing some bullish divergence so some caution is warranted on the upside. Therefore, in a case of a pullback, the next level to watch will be the ultimate target at $1,325. 


Published in Commodites & Metals
Thursday, 16 June 2016 07:41

XAU/USD Booked Gains After Fed!

The precious metal has just reached the higher level since early May after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold during yesterday’s meeting and announced that it still planned to raise rates twice in 2016. Gold is sensitive to interest hikes, which increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest yielding metal.

In our last few reports (one of the reports: we were bullish on gold, targeting the psychological level at $1,300. The yellow metal surpassed the suggested target during yesterday’s session after the Fed policy meeting. Technically, if the precious metal continues the aggressive rally, which started after the strong rebound from the $1,200 level, will reach the next suggested target at $1,325. The only obstacle that has to overcome is the 200-SMA on the weekly chart. The technical indicators MACD and RSI are in an overbought territory with strong momentum, endorsing our suggestion. The MACD oscillator is above zero, and the RSI is above 70.


Published in Commodites & Metals
Monday, 13 June 2016 09:50

XAU/USD is About to Exit its Range

The precious metal surged for a fourth consecutive day after hitting its highest in nearly four weeks on early- Friday, supported by a softer dollar and ahead of key central bank meetings (Fed, BoE and BoJ) this week, as well as ahead of the EU referendum.

The yellow metal rose above the 50-SMA to $1,284 in early Monday trading, and hovers around the $1,280 price zone ahead of the NY opening, as risk aversion continues dominating the financial world. Overall, the XAU/USD is continuing to trade in a fairly tight range, with the psychological level at $1,300 capping any moves to the upside and $1,200 propping it up. The last rebound from the psychological level at $1,200 was very aggressive as the metal added more than $80 in a ten days’ time. In the meantime, the 4-hour chart shows that the price is well above a bullish 50-SMA that keeps covering the downside whilst the MACD oscillator holds within a positive territory. Furthermore, the momentum indicators head modestly higher above 100, adding to the bullish picture. In the 1-hour chart, the technical indicators head sharply higher above oversold readings, supporting some additional inclines towards the $1,300 - $1,304 zone. A break above there should open the way towards $1,325, which coincides with the 200-SMA on the weekly chart.


Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 08 June 2016 07:49

Gold and WTI Technical Outlook

Gold covered almost the half of its earlier losses
The precious metal reached a fresh two-week high as the possibility of an early U.S. interest rate hike appeared to dim following dovish comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen earlier this week. The yellow metal, which fell more than 7% in May, has risen about 3% so far this month on dampened expectations of an early rate hike. Following the strong rebound from the psychological level of $1,200, the metal surpassed easily the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart, as well as the $1,240 barrier to turn the bias to bullish. The next level to watch will be the $1,255 level, which coincides with the 50-SMa on the daily chart and the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart, which I think it will take 2-3 attempts to break above there. Beyond there, the $1,265 and the $1,283 levels will be the next obstacle for the bulls before reaching the psychological level at $1,300. All in all, we remain bullish on the precious metal.

WTI reached target at $51.00
WTI rose for a third day to its highest in about eight months on early Wednesday, helped by industry data showing a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, worries about attacks on Nigeria's oil industry and strong Chinese demand. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels last week. The WTI reached the suggested target ( at $51.00 by early Wednesday after settling down to $50.80 at the moment writing. Now, the next level to watch will be the $54.00 region, however, it will need a lot of effort from the bulls to reach that region. Overall, technical readings favor the upside, as in the 4-hour chart, as well as in the daily chart, the 50-SMA has extended its rally above the 200-SMA. Furthermore, the RSI indicator keeps consolidating near 70 indicating further upside movements while the MACD keeps correcting into an overbought territory.



Published in Commodites & Metals

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