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Melina DELTASJunior Market Analyst

Items filtered by date: April 2016

Friday, 29 April 2016 06:09

Huge Profits on GOLD!

Finally, the precious metal surged above the $1,271 and poised for its biggest weekly rise since January 31, as the greenback tumbled after the BoJ and the Federal Reserve stood pat on policy. For the week, the precious metal is up 3.5% and a day before the end of April is up 3.5%. It should be noted that the metal is up 20% since the start of 2016!

In the last three reports (http://bit.ly/1VElzEW, http://bit.ly/1WgEQLA, http://bit.ly/1XXDl3V) we insisted for strong bullish positions following the triangle formation formed on the 4-hour and the daily chart. At last, the move came after the yellow metal rebounded aggressively from $1,242, a level that we considered a significant level the last 2 weeks, since it coincides with the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50-SMA on the daily. The precious metal surged above the $1,271 during yesterday’s session and is now ready to test the critical level at $1,283 (March 2016 & December 2014 highs). With the above in mind, we remain strong bullish on gold targeting the ultimate $1,300 level!  

XAUUSDDaily290416.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Tuesday, 26 April 2016 07:22

XAU/USD bounces off lows towards $1,260

The yellow metal slipped from a five-week high following the ECB policy meeting the previous week and continue consolidating below the critical level at $1,260 ahead of some significant events coming from the U.S., including the Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday.

The consolidation over the last few months, which previously looked like a descending triangle has now become a symmetrical triangle. This is typically a continuation pattern, regardless of whether it appears in an uptrend or a downtrend, so the test to the upside during yesterday’s session came as no real surprise. What this does suggest is that following the aggressive rally over the last couple of days, we may finally be about to see a rally above the upper boundary of the triangle. With this in mind, the next key level of support for gold, and therefore a potential exit from the pattern is the $1,260 level. Above here we have the $1,270 level which also coincides with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. Above these levels, the next obstacle for the bulls will be the key resistance level at $1,284. Above there, as we said before, there is very little support until the ultimate target at $1,300. On the downside, the $1,225 continues to provide strong support to the bulls while the significant area at $1,208 - $1,210 will provide an important support to the bulls in case of a pullback.

XAUUSDH4250416.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Friday, 22 April 2016 06:58

XAU/USD consolidates within a triangle

The precious metal slipped from a five-week high following the ECB policy meeting and continue consolidating below $1,283. The consolidation over the last few months, which previously looked like a descending triangle has now become a symmetrical triangle. This is typically a continuation pattern, regardless of whether it appears in an uptrend or a downtrend, so the test to the upside during yesterday’s session came as no real surprise. What this does suggest is that following the aggressive rally over the last couple of days, we may finally be about to see a rally above the upper boundary of the triangle.

With this in mind, the next key level of support for the gold, and therefore a potential exit from the pattern is the $1,271 level. Above here we have the $1,283 level which also coincides with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. Above these levels, the next obstacle for the bulls will be the key resistance level at $1,300. Alternatively, given how aggressive the rally has been over the last few days, we could see a brief period of consolidation, before a continuation of the move towards yesterday’s highs, around $1,271.

XAUUSDDaily220416.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 20 April 2016 07:29

XAU/USD in a Bullish Bias

XAU/USD is continuing to trade in a fairly tight range the last couple of days with $1,260 capping any moves to the upside and $1,250 propping it up. Following the aggressive rally which started from the $1,225 area the precious metal managed to sustain its gains above the key support at $1,240 and it seems that it remains strong. The latter it’s a significant level since it coincides with the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA, as well as the 50-SMA on the daily chart.

Technically, further gold losses would head towards $1,240 where I would expect the bulls to react strongly. On the upside, back above $1,260 would see offers again at $1,272. Above here is unlikely for a while as I would like to see the gold to take out the $1,260 - $1,262 zone before it turns bullish again.

XAUUSDH4200416.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Monday, 18 April 2016 10:13

Brent Crude Oil Profit Locked at $45.00

The Brent Crude Oil enjoyed more than 60% gains following its record low levels near $27.25 per barrel and its last peak at the psychological level at $45.00, recording the biggest rally of the last twelve months and the highest level of this year. Following the meeting of the key oil producers including Russia and Saudi Arabia that failed to clinch a deal, the oil price slumped and is currently testing the ascending trend line started back in January, near the support level at $40.00.

Technically, the test of the significant level at $45.00, the suggested target in the Strategic Report released on 11th of April (http://bit.ly/1WAnj1j), didn’t come as a surprise following the aggressive rally from the $37.35 area. Going to the 4-hour chart, the 200-SMA is providing support to the price slightly above the significant resistance zone between $40.00 and $40.30, following the gap lower. I would expect the correction to keep intact for a while and then to continue its uptrend. Therefore, we should watch for a return to $42.70 before we see further downside correction towards the uptrend trend line, around $39.50.

BrentCrudH41804162-2.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Monday, 11 April 2016 07:13

Gold fails to hold below $1,240

The precious metal jumped to its highest in nearly three weeks on early Monday as cautiousness in the U.S. dollar underpinned demand for the metal. The yellow metal advanced 1.40% on a weekly basis trading at $1,250. On Tuesday, we saw the metal breaking above the key level of $1,240 and post its second consecutive positive week and is on track to record a third straight positive week, as it gained more than 1% so far this week.

The rally in the metal since breaking above the descending trend line has been very strong, triggering some losses for us since we were waiting for the metal to move down. We saw a brief pullback last week before a continuation of the move higher on Friday. Going forward, I do expect to see further gains in the near future, at least for temporary, with the price reaching the $1,260 barrier. However, to reach that level it is very important bulls to manage and sustain the price above the key level of $1,240. Alternatively, given how aggressive the rally has been over the last few days, we could see a brief period of consolidation, with a move back below $1,240 to open the way towards $1,225.

XAUUSDH4110416.png

Published in Commodites & Metals

The white metal started the year on a stronger footing, giving away all the losses posted on November (-10%) and December (-2%) on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar. The XAG/USD has roared back almost 12% since its December low and it seems that the metal is moving towards the 2016 highs. It may be too early to say the silver is looking bullish again following such a long period of consolidation, but there is certainly a slight bullish bias being seen in the metal right now. It is very significant that the white metal has managed to overcome the 200-SMA on the daily chart, as well as the significant zone of 14.50 – 14.70.

On the 4-hour chart, the silver is traded in a wide range between 14.60 and 16.14. Following a sharp fall on the NFP day on Friday 01 April, the precious metal recovered almost the half of its losses and is testing the critical level at 15.12.

XAGUSDH4050420162

Going to a lower timeframe, the picture shows that the XAG/USD will continue its recovery above the significant barrier at 15.12. A break above that level will open the way towards the sloping trend line near 15.30 which coincides with the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, I would expect a battle to take place around 15.12 and the metal to test it again from the upside before it will rally upwards.

The medium-term traders should watch the 14.50 level, as I consider this level a turning point for the metal since it coincides with the long term descending trend line which started back in March 2013, before we test the critical zone at 16.00 – 16.50.

XAGUSDH1050420162

Published in Commodites & Metals

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