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Melina DELTASJunior Market Analyst

Items filtered by date: February 2016

Monday, 29 February 2016 09:48

Brent Breakout Fails!

Over the last couple of months, the UK Brent Crude oil has established and traded within a trading range roughly around the key level of $33.00, whilst moving down to support at $30.00 and up to $36.17. Volatility compared to just a few days back is very mild, as the commodity made a so-called fake breakup above the latter level and pullback sharply. Lots of late longs are probably caught and eventual stop loss hunting will lead prices lower, well below $35.00.

Therefore, a return to the downside, within the sideways channel which started back in mid-January, would see a move back towards the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart, near $34.20. Under here looks likely for a while but if will see strong sellers around $34.00, then we could see a further pressure towards the key support of $33.25. A break of this could then see a run towards the 200-SMA and the ascending trend line, near $33.20. On the other hand, a move above the $36.17 level looks a bit unlikely for the next couple of days.

BrentCrudH4290216.png

 

Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 24 February 2016 09:01

Gold Remains Bullish! Next Target $1,263!

The precious metal surged more than 1% on Tuesday, extending its recent gains above $1,200, as investors turned to safe-haven assets after a slump in global equities. The yellow metal is trading above the descending trend line, which started back in mid-2013, as well as above the all-important barrier of $1,200. The daily indicators at this stage remain positive and therefore since we don’t see a reason for a pullback, we remain strongly bullish, with the next target being the $1,250 hurdle and then 11 February high at $1,263.

As it was mentioned in our previous report, it is very significant that the 50-SMA crossed above the 200-SMA on the daily chart. Furthermore, it is very important that the bullion managed to hold above the critical level of $1,200. Therefore, the longer it does so, the stronger a base it will build.

XAUUSDDaily240216.png

Published in Commodites & Metals

The precious metal has aggressively reversed last week’s gains and is now testing some significant obstacles, including the 200-SMA on the 1-hour chart and the descending trend line - from above - which started back in March 2014. The yellow metal has returned back to the suggested rebound area of $1,190 - $1,205 and it surged above the critical level of $1,200 in early trading (http://bit.ly/20AMAae). We remain bullish on gold with the next target being the $1,214 and then the $1,234 barrier, before reaching $1,250.

XAUUSDH4160216.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Monday, 15 February 2016 07:37

XAU/USD Daily Outlook

The precious metal had climbed to a year-high of $1,263.58 on Thursday 11th of February, as turmoil in global equities stoked safe-haven demand for the yellow metal, along with U.S. dollar weakness. Bullion was also fueled by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates this year. Gold prices rose more than 15% so far this year, around $188 an ounce to $1,263 - the highest price since February 2015 and a $217 jump per ounce since December 2015. Gold prices jumped 5% the previous week, upping its year-to-date gains to more than 15%.

The precious metal continues on its strong path of advancement, recording lower lows – see weekly chart – on its way to higher highs – see daily chart. The previous week saw it decisively breach the descending trend line which started back in mid-2013. It should be noted that the commodity is also trading above the weekly 50-SMA, as well as above the psychological level of $1,200. 

XAUUSDWeekly150216.png

Going forward, gold prices retreated from the Thursday high of $1,263 and spent the day slightly above the descending trend line, around $1,215. The momentum indicators remain overbought so further losses may lie ahead which could potentially see a break below the descending trend line, near $1,205 for a return to $1,200 and then at the psychological level of $1,200. Under here seems unlikely for the moment but further losses could reach $1,143.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at $1,260 and again at $1,263. We do not expect it to go above here again for a while, since both the short-term charts and indicators are now overbought. If the aforementioned resistance levels do get taken out, there is then not much to stop it heading towards the critical level of $1,310, beyond which it could then approach $1,345, which coincides with the 200-SMA on the weekly chart. 

XAUUSDDaily150216

Published in Commodites & Metals
Thursday, 11 February 2016 08:54

WTI and Brent – Profit Locked!

WTI turned aggressively downwards before testing the suggested level, at $29.20. WTI fell below the critical level of $27.56 and record a fresh low, closing below the $27.00 level, as suggested. The daily momentum indicators are pointing lower although the medium term MACD is showing a degree of bullish divergence so caution is warranted on the topside. Following 3 consecutive of winning suggestions, a cautious stance is required.

A similar picture prevailed in UK Brent as it tested the suggested zone of $32.00 – $32.10 before turning south. Currently, the Brent is trading around $30.65 and I would expect the selling pressure to continue, prompting a more aggressive move towards the $29.20 – $29.40 zone.

WTICrudeH4110216.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Thursday, 11 February 2016 08:47

Gold above $1,200 as suggested

Gold is being supported by safe-haven buying flows, as well as from a weaker dollar, reaching the psychological level of $1,200 on early Thursday, a level that we have suggested during yesterday’s report "JPY, CHF and Gold the Main Beneficiaries of the Global Economic Uncertainty; Yellen's Testimony in Radar".  The yellow metal rebounded from the $1,175 – $1,185 area, which we have suggested during yesterday’s report and surged above the psychological level of $1,200 recording a fresh nine-month high. The gold price is now up 14.10% so far in 2016 and has risen in 13 of the past 17 sessions, excluding today. Having in mind the above, the above target to watch will be the $1,235 barrier, June 17, 2015, high.

XAUUSDH4110216.png

Published in Commodites & Metals

The WTI Crude oil fell for a fifth consecutive session, currently trading below the psychological level of $30 following the aggressive sell-off which started after the peak near the $35 level few weeks ago. However, the WTI pushed slightly higher during the Asian session, after testing the critical level of $27.56, January low, with some support coming from reports Iran was willing to negotiate with fellow OPEC member Saudi Arabia over oil market conditions. OPEC releases its monthly oil market report today. Following the test of the latter level, I would expect the US crude oil to test the key resistance barrier at $29.20 before turning downwards again.

WTICrudeH4100216.png

A similar picture with the UK Brent which came under selling pressure the last 5 days, recording a 10% drop the last week, currently trading slightly above the $30 level. The 50-MS and the 200-SMA on the daily chart, both are supporting the downtrend, while the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart is currently preventing any moves above the critical level of $36.00. However, most of our indicators are trying to pick momentum and overcome the oversold levels, therefore, we should expect a pullback in the coming hours, probably to test the $32.00 - $32.10 zone before continuing south.

WTIandBrentPerf.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Wednesday, 10 February 2016 08:09

XAU/USD Possible Rebound

The yellow metal rose for a fourth consecutive week, climbing towards an 8-month high as most investors turned to safe haven assets the last few weeks. The precious metal rose more than 8% the last month and is trading positive 12.30% YTD. Gold futures settled near $1,200 an ounce on Monday for their best finish since June 22, 2015. It is very significant that the metal is trading above the 200-SMA on the daily chart, as well as above the 50-SMA on the weekly chart, adding to the bullish picture of the metal. In the coming hours, the metal could find support near the $1,180 - $1,185 zone, which coincides with the 50-SMA on the 1-hour chart, therefore, we could buy the dips for now.

XAUUSDH410022016.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Thursday, 04 February 2016 09:01

XAU/USD - Profit Locked

The precious metal experienced significant gains on the US dollar weakness and it continued its rally towards the descending trend line, as suggested in our strategic report. ‘‘Therefore, we foresee the metal to test the descending trend line, which started back in early 2014, and to remain under buying pressure for the next week.’’ The yellow metal stayed near a three-month top on early Thursday after marking its best day since January 07 where it rose 1.52% versus yesterday’s rise of 1.28%.

The metal is now trading near the $1,142 level, after rising as high as $1,145 in late Wednesday. It should be noted that the metal has risen nearly 7% so far this year following a strong January 2016 which it gains more than 5%, the best since January 2015 (+6.12%). All in all, the 4-hour chart, as well as the daily chart, suggests we could see some gold strength with the final destination being the descending trend line, around $1,150.

XAUUSDH402042016.png

Published in Commodites & Metals
Monday, 01 February 2016 10:06

WTI Crude Oil to fall below $30 again

Following the aggressive sell-off the previous three months which we saw the West Texas Intermediate crude to plunge below the critical level of $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years the U.S. crude oil managed to recover a bit the previous week but once again failed to sustain its move above some significant levels. It should be noted that the crude oil has extended a 70% drop since mid-June 2014.

With the above in mind, the crude oil may be set for a bigger correction than initially through having broken through both the 50-SMA and the $32.74 level. However, the buyers failed to overcome the 200-SMA near the $34.46 and while I do not expect a move above the critical resistance level of $34.46 in the next few days I would watch the $32.10 – $32.74 zone for a continuation of the downtrend and the end of the correction. Therefore, the next key level to watch is the $31.00 which coincides with the 50-SMA and short term rising line.

WTICrudeH4010216.png

Published in Commodites & Metals

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