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Christian KÄMMERERHead of German Speaking Markets
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Barbara NICODEMOUMarket Analyst
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Research is creating new knowledge.
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Melina DELTASJunior Market Analyst
Monday, 16 January 2017 08:59

Strategic Report, 2017 Newsletter 3

Published in Strategic Report

 

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The single currency opened with a gap to the downside over yesterday’s quiet session, three days ahead of the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair traded higher over the last week as it surged more than 1% and managed to challenge the 1.0670 resistance level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The common currency failed to end a day above the latter level while it rebounded on it and now is developing near the 1.0620 price level. Over the last week, the price rose above the 50-daily SMA endorsing the bullish attitude on price while the RSI indicator is following a positive path, however, is pointing downwards. The MACD oscillator is rising and is moving above both, its trigger and zero lines. Also, the Bollinger bands show that the market is ready for an upward potential move as the upper band is inclining to the upside. The next level to watch would be the 1.0800 strong psychological handle which overlaps with the 100-daily SMA. On the other hand, if the pair fails to move higher a sideways channel is possible to be created within the 1.0500 – 1.0670 significant zone.

EURUSDDaily160117

2. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling dropped more than 20% against the U.S dollar since EU Referendum in June. The GBP/USD pair opened with 155 pips gap to the downside over yesterday’s session and almost challenged the 31-year low at 1.1987 ahead of Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday who plans to speak about Britain’s exit from the European Union.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The pair recorded a fresh three-month low and now may try to cover the losses as it is developing slightly below the 1.2040 price level. If the price surpasses above the latter level, it would open the way for a retest of the 1.2120 resistance barrier. Otherwise, the pair may slip at the aforementioned 31-year low. On the short-term timeframe, the RSI indicator plunged near the 30 level, however, it failed to fall within the oversold area. Furthermore, the MACD oscillator holds below its trigger and zero lines with strong momentum.

GBPUSDH4160117

3. USD/JPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

U.S. dollar recorded the fourth negative week in a row against the Japanese yen after breaking to the downside the consolidation area that was holding over the last month. The USD/JPY pair plummeted more than 2.6% this month and reached our first target at 113.70 (see technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2jOIT2m)

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The pair fell below the 50-daily SMA that was acting as a strong support level during the previous sessions. Now, it behaves as a resistance level and if there is a successful penetration above it the price will expose until the 118.65 resistance level. An alternative scenario is a continuation of the downside correction until the 113.00 psychological level or moreover until the 111.30 support barrier. Technical indicators, seem to be in agreement with the bearish thought, as both are following a negative path. The MACD oscillator is falling and has just entered the territory below zero while the RSI indicator is rebounded on the overbought area and is approaching the 30 level.

USDJPYDaily160117

4. DAX 30 Index WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

German DAX 30 is losing some ground since yesterday’s trading session as it fell more than 0.7%. Over the last week, the index recorded a fresh 21-month high at 11695, however, after that, the price plunged to 11480 support barrier.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

From the technical point of view, the indicators are confirming the recent bearish movement as maybe is the time for a retracement to the downside. It seems that the bulls have run out of strength while the DAX will continue its attempts to break the 11480 level. A successful penetration of the support zone at 11390 - 11480, it would open the way for the index to hit the 11130 handle which overlaps with the 50-daily SMA. On the other side, a break above the new high will expose the index until the 11800 resistance barrier. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below the overbought territory and the MACD oscillator fell below its trigger line.

DE30CashDaily160117

5. Brent Crude Oil WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Brent Crude Oil is establishing within an ascending move since April as it surged almost 40%. The oil price tried to test the rising trend line several times while now is trading well above it. The price hit a fresh high at $58.50 while it rebounded on it and now is trading lower near $55.70.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The crude oil is moving towards the $53.80 support barrier which overlaps with the first support level of the weekly pivot points, as it failed to test again the aforementioned new high. Additionally, a break below the latter level will drive the price at the 50-daily SMA which is near the second support of the pivot points. On the daily chart, technical indicators are biased lower after entering the negative territory. The MACD oscillator is falling while it is moving below the zero line with some weak momentum. The RSI indicator is sloping downwards whilst it is still holding above the negative zone.

BrentCrudeDaily160117

6. XAU/USD Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The yellow metal surged more than 6% over the last three weeks while over yesterday’s session it printed the seventh green day in a row. The strong rebound on the $1,122 support barrier drove the gold to incline above the $1,200 significant psychological level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Technically, on the daily chart, the XAU/USD pair surpassed the 50-SMA and now is developing towards the $1,220 resistance level which is slightly below the 100-SMA. At this level, the price may begin a small correction to the downside as the zone acts as a good resistance barrier. Despite that, if the price rises above the aforementioned obstacles will meet the $1,240 price level. The MACD oscillator is moving higher while is holding above its trigger and zero lines. The RSI indicator has just entered the overbought area as it lies above the 70 level.

XAUUSDDaily160117

7. Schneider Electric STOCK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Schneider Electric (SU.P) is publicly traded on the Euronext Exchange and is a component of the Euro Stoxx 50 stock market index. The stock is trading near to its highest level since the mid of 2015. We expect that the uptrend in this market will sustain and the price will continue rising with the target zone around the 69.00 resistance level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Technically, a break over the latter level, it will open the way towards our expected price target around the key level at 71.30. The price is over the 50, 100 and 200 period SMAs on the daily chart and the trend looks stable with approximate 45 degrees’ angle, which is adding to the odds for a new possible rise in the short-term period. MACD is above the zero line supporting the expectations for a new uptrend movement. RSI is testing the zone of 70 level and is moving over it and is indicating for a new upward movement. In the case the price declines and moves below 63.80, then we are forecasting that the upside move will not be valid. With this scenario, the target would be the key support at 59.70.

SU.PDaily

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Jan 16 - 20; Economic Calendar Signals High Volatility

The U.S. dollar ended last week very low against all the major currencies, as U.S. President Donald Trump didn’t give enough information for his administration in his speech, as it was broadly expected. The only exception was the British pound which surprised the marked this morning with a gap to the downside on speculations that U.K. PM Theresa May will signal a so-called “Hard Brexit” on Tuesday.

This week we have a number of significant events scheduled that will trigger volatility in the market. Today, the BoE Governor Mark Carney will give a speech. On Tuesday, U.K. Prime Minister will give a speech for the Brexit, while in the next days the U.K. Supreme Court is expected to publish its decision for Article 50. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has a speech while on Friday the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th U.S. President is on the calendar. Moreover, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate decision while during the week, U.S., U.K. and Euro area’s inflation rates will be released.

On Monday, the U.S. market will be closed due to a Bank Holiday and perhaps this will influence a quiet market and low volatility. Data from the Eurozone will come out, presenting trade balance for November with a forecast €22.0B from a previous €19.7B, but the market reaction is not expected to be significantly affected by the news. The event that could drive volatility in the market and especially in the GBP pairs is the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the London School of Economics at 18:30 which will be published.

On Tuesday in the European morning, the U.K. inflation and report will be released. CPI for December is forecasted to show a rise to 1.4% yoy amid previous 1.2% yoy while the core CPI is expected to rise to 1.5% yoy from 1.2% before. The retail price indicator in the U.K. for December on yoy base also is expected to increase to 2.3% from previous 2.2%. Overall, we expect the U.K. data to support the sterling. The most significant market driver event of the day is U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May speech for Brexit which will probably drive the market, and she is expected to signal the so-called “hard Brexit”.

Later on, German ZEW Survey for January will present the economic sentiment in Eurozone and Germany, as well as the current situation in Germany. All of the mentioned sectors are expected to show improvement for the first month of the new year. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to rise to 14.8 from 13.8 before, while the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment for January is forecasted for 19.4 against previous 18.1. ZEW data will raise the volatility of the euro against the other majors and the better than expected values will help the shared currency to keep rising. In the U.S., the NY Empire State manufacturing index and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism for January are coming out while traders will keep an eye on Fed William Dudley’s speech.

Wednesday shows some signs to be a volatile day. The day begins with the German CPI report, though the headline inflation rate is not expected to change from the last figure of 1.7%, thus will leave the market indifferent. In the U.K., the employment report will be published. The ILO unemployment rate for the three months to November may show slight rising to 4.9% comparing to the last data of 4.8%.

The average earnings, including bonus, for the three months to November, are forecasted to show a rise of 2.6% versus an increase of 2.5% before. Claimant count rate is expected to increase by 7.4K from a previous rise of 2.4K. In Eurozone, the headline inflation report for December will be released. The headline CPI figure is forecasted to meet the initial estimate of 1.1%, thus, the market may not react to the news.

Contrary, the U.S. CPI report perhaps will influence the U.S. dollar pairs. The forecasts suggest the consumer prices in December to have risen 2.1% versus 1.7% in November. An important increase of the rising pace. U.S. industrial production is also coming out, and the market predicted it to rise 0.3% from the previous decline of 0.4%. Better than expected values may support the U.S. national currency.

Furthermore, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will appear on stage and will announce the overnight rate. We expect the rate to stay unchanged at 0.5%, but during the statement and monetary policy report the Canadian dollar may show strong volatility and any hawkish signs may lead the Loonie to rise sharply. Overnight, Australian consumer inflation expectation for January will be released followed by country’s employment report. The unemployment rate is forecasted to stay unchanged from previous 5.7%, while employment change may fall by 5K against from a previous increase of 39.1K.

Economic events on Thursday will keep supporting volatility on the currency market. The highlight of the day is the European Central Bank interest rate decision which will be accompanied by a press conference. The ECB is widely anticipated to keep its interest rate unchanged at 0% and its deposit rate at -0.4%. The impact on the market is likely to come over during ECB president Mario Draghi's speech.

From the U.S., weekly jobless claims are expected to show similar values of 247K as previous. Philly Fed manufacturing index for January perhaps will show lower figures to 17.4 – less than previous 21.5 while buildings permits for December will slightly rise to 1217K amid previous 1212K. Overnight, China will publish the latest data for GDP and industrial production. GDP is expected to stay unchanged at 6.7% for the fourth quarter of the year and industrial production may increase to 6.1% compared with previous 6.2%. Meanwhile, the CNY may have got some selling pressure from the other currencies.

On Friday, the spotlight event is Donald Trump’s inauguration. In U.K., the retail sales for December from the United Kingdom are forecasted to rise by 1.0% compared to previous 0.2%. From Canada, the CPI inflation data for December will concentrate trader focus. The consumer prices are awaited to rise by 0.2%, while in November they declined by 0.4%. Also, retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% against a previous 1.1%. If the Canada data come out mixed in line with the forecast, most likely we will see sharp movements in all CAD crosses after the release.

Stay tuned for further updates from our daily reports.

USCPI180117

ECB19012017 2

 

Thursday, 12 January 2017 08:10

Gold Surged and Target Locked Below $1,200

Published in Commodites & Metals

Gold added more than 4.3% over the last seven trading days following the strong rebound on the $1,122 price level. The XAU/USD pair booked a profit that we suggested in the previous days at $1,197 with entry level at $1,175 (see technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2jGE6UM). The price currently is developing above the strong obstacle at $1,200 and is moving towards the next resistance barrier at $1,220.

Technically, the MACD oscillator is moving upwards with strong momentum, confirming the enthusiasm of the bulls, after it entered into the positive area while the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought territory with very clear directional strength.

XAUUSDDaily120117.png

Monday, 09 January 2017 09:04

Strategic Report, 2017 Newsletter 2

Published in Strategic Report

 

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

In the previous week, Eurozone economic reports helped to drive EUR/USD pair above 1.0600 price level, however, on Friday the pair dropped 0.7% and ended the day slightly above the 1.0500 strong psychological level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The From a technical point of view, the single currency rebounded on the 50-daily SMA and hit the 1.0630 resistance barrier while the moving average seems to be a strong resistance obstacle for the bulls. If the price surpasses the 1.0630 – 1.0670 zone to the upside, it would open the way for a further bullish movement until the 1.0800 significant handle. On the other side, a break below the aforementioned psychological level will slip the currency pair towards the 1.0340 support level. Technical indicators are confirming the bearish thought as both are indicating downward momentum. The RSI indicator was flattening near its mid-level while now is pointing downwards and the Stochastic oscillator created a bearish crossover between its moving averages. 

EURUSDDaily090117

2. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling struggled throughout the first week of January against the U.S. dollar, despite that it failed to create a second positive week. The GBP/USD pair plunged more than 1.8% since Friday’s session and early this morning recorded a fresh two-month low at 1.2180 price level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

As you can see on the chart, the pair failed to break, or close, above the key resistance level at 1.2430 during the previous week while the currency pair rebounded on the latter level and started a significant bearish movement. The next level to watch would be the 1.2115 support barrier. On the short-term timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling with strong momentum as it is approaching the oversold area. The MACD oscillator has just entered the negative territory while it lies below its trigger line.

GBPUSDH4090117

3. USD/JPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Friday’s U.S. jobs report was not strong enough to prevent the dollar from sinking near 115.00 support level versus the Japanese yen but also not enough for driving the USD/JPY pair retesting the 11-month high at 118.65.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The pair jumped more than 1.7% since Friday’s session after the bounce off the 115.00 strong critical level and now is approaching the 118.65 resistance barrier as the momentum remains to the upside. As you can observe on the chart, the 50-SMA is moving higher near 115.00 while the other two SMAs are also sloping upwards. On the daily chart, the MACD oscillator lost its strong momentum as it is flattening above its mid-level. The RSI indicator is rising after the rebound in the 50 area. Going to the 4-hour chart, the price surpassed above the three SMAs while the technical indicators are following a positive path. 

USDJPYDaily090117

4. DAX 30 Index WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

DE30Cash is losing positions during the first trading day of the week, but the price is still sustaining over 11,500.00 which is signaling that this is temporary weaken, perhaps due to some long positions closing and taking profits from traders after the last few weeks’ rally.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

We expect that this market will keep its uptrend tendency during the next days and the zone around 11,500.00 - 11,510.00 looks very attractive for taking new long positions with very first targets around resistance at 11,655.50. We also expect that uptrend momentum will continue towards 12,000.00 in the short term period. The price is strongly over the 50, 100 and 200 periods SMA on the daily chart which are indicating for very strong upward movement. MACD is above the zero line and giving a divergence signal, but still is not a strong sign for possible DAX sell-offs. RSI is leaving the overbought zone and the line is slipping below level of 70, which is a sign for possible decline. Nevertheless, as MACD and RSI signaling for possible decline, the tendency is strongly up and only a sharp sell-off and a move below 10780.00 will be a solid signal for further decreasing towards 10,354.00 - 10,300.00 zone.

DE30CashDaily090117

5. WTI Crude Oil WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Oil price plunged early this morning as increased exports from Iran undermined efforts by other oil producers. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edged sharply higher over the last year while over the last week the oil printed a fresh 17-month high at $55.70.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

After it hit the latter level, a pullback started while the price is moving sideways over the last three weeks. The WTI consolidates within the $52.65 support barrier and the $55.25 resistance level while now is trading near the $54.30 price level. Despite that, the oil is still developing in an ascending move since August 2016 and is moving well above of the rising line. However, if there is a break below the $52.65 support barrier will slip the price towards the $51.00 strong level. Otherwise, if the price surpasses the resistance area $55.25 - $55.70 to the upside, it will expose the oil towards the $56.50 obstacle. Currently, the price may retest the lower boundary of the trading range. The RSI indicator is moving within the 50 and 70 level with some weak momentum while the MACD oscillator is falling with solid move and it is holding below its trigger line.

WTICrudeDaily090117

6. XAU/USD Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The precious metal printed the second green consecutive week following three negative months in a row. The XAU/USD pair surged more than 3.6% over the last two weeks and surpassed above the $1,165 strong barrier after several failed attempts.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the daily timeframe, despite that the price rose above the latter level, it found an obstacle as the 50-SMA lies near the current market price. If the yellow metal penetrates to the upside the aforementioned obstacle, it would open the door for a retest of the $1,197 resistance barrier. Technical indicators on the daily chart are biased higher as the MACD oscillator is rising and is approaching its mid-level. The RSI indicator is weakening as it is flattening above the 50 level. On the short-term basis, the 50-SMA is ready for creating a bullish crossover with the 200-SMA indicating a buy signal.

XAUUSDDaily090117

7. Facebook Inc. STOCK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The stock strongly rose after the price rebound from the key support zone 113.60 - 114.00 and continues inclining for four days in a row reaching and testing the 100 period SMA at 123.890 - 124.00. During the next days, we expect that the price will continue to rising with first target at 126.30. Clear break over will open the way towards price region at 133.40.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the daily chart, we have also confirmed technical formation “double bottom”, which is in line supporting our expectations for possible rising with technical target levels at 127.00 – 127.50. MACD is still below the zero line, but the indicator is rising from a side and divergence signal is adding to the odds that the price will keep increasing. RSI is sloping up approaching the 70 level and this is a signal for a possible uptrend movement. Nevertheless, always, there is an alternative scenario – in case some investors and traders decided to take some profits from the market and this may lead to price decline. Sharp sell-off and moving below 119.60 will erase the expectation for rising and signal for possible decline with initial target support zone at 113.60.

FBDaily090117

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Jan 09 - 13; Fed Yellen's Speech and U.S. Retail Sales the Focus of the Week

The U.S. non-farm payroll data released on Friday showed that the economy added 156K non-farm jobs in December, a bit below expectations of 175K and previous month’s figure of 178K. On the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in line with forecast. On the other hand, the average hourly earnings rose 2.9% versus 2.5% before, surprising positively the market.

The greenback managed to push higher against all the major currencies, with the exception the Loonie. Traders were expecting better values, though the thought that U.S. economy is near to full employment and the increase in wages considered the numbers sufficient for bullish dollar positions.

The economic calendar for the week ahead seems to be very busy with a plethora of data, but not such significant news. The only market driver events are Fed Yellen’s speech on Thursday overnight and the publication of the U.S. retail sales for December.

On Monday, Eurozone’s sentix investor confidence for January and unemployment rate of November will cause low effect over the market. The sentix index is expected to rise up to 12.6 from previous 10.0, while the unemployment rate most likely will stay unchanged at 9.8%. The data from U.S. is expected to show a slight increase for consumer credits change up to $48.43B in November compared with previous $16.02B, but here also we do not expect any strong movement. Monday is a Bank Holiday for Japan.

Overnight, the retails sales of Australia may bring some volatility over the Aussie crosses. Retail sales on monthly base are forecasted to decline to 0.4% in November from previous 0.5% and this may set under the pressure the Aussie. From China, interest will provoke the data for consumer price and producer price index. In overall, the forecast is for slight improving for producer price index up to 4.8% with previous 3.3%, which may bring some interest over the CNY.

On Tuesday, Canada will release building permits which perhaps may rise just by 2.4% from 8.4% for November and new housing starts with a forecast for rising to 195K from 184K. From U.S., the wholesale inventories are expected to show 0.9% increase in November in line with the previous month’s figure. On Wednesday, early in the morning, Japanese flash leading and coincident index will be released, but market most likely will just pass over the news without any reaction.

In the middle of the week, November’s manufacturing and industrial production from the U.K. will be in the focus. Better figures would help to the sterling to improve its positions against the majors. The manufacturing production is forecasted to improve to 0.6% yoy from previous negative 0.9% and industrial production may raise to 0.8% yoy from previous also negative 1.3%. Additional volatility over the sterling will add the release of the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to December. Later in the night, Japan will publish its current account and trade balance for November.

On Thursday morning, Euro area’s industrial production for November and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are coming out. Industrial production is forecasted to rise 1.6% yoy in November, versus an increase of 0.6% the month before. Weekly jobless claims from U.S. will also come out on Thursday where we expect increasing to 266K against the week before of 235K, however, we wouldn’t expect any reaction of the market. Import prices from the U.S. are also expected to show increasing to 0.8% yoy in December following negative 0.3% the previous period. Moreover, FOMC members Charles L. Evans and Patrick T. Harker will speak after the release of the U.S. data. In the European midnight, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will discuss the mission and responsibilities of Fed, expressing her remarks and taking questions from educators of economics. The event will have a severe impact on U.S. the dollar. Meanwhile, the trade balance from China is expected to reach 345B from the previous 298B and this may create a good base for further rising for offshore yuan.

On Friday, the data from the Euro area are limited and to Spanish which is not expected touch the single currency. The focus on that day will be again in U.S. data where inflation indicator PPI and retails sales will be announced. Retail sales on a monthly base are expected to improve to 0.5% from 0.1% previously, while PPI data may decline to 0.1% from previous 0.4%.

UKManufIndusProd11012017

USretailSales13012017

 

Tuesday, 03 January 2017 08:07

Strategic Report, 2017 Newsletter 1

Published in Strategic Report

 

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The EUR/USD pair plunged more than 3% over the last year and hit a fresh 13-year low at 1.0352 against the U.S. dollar whilst it recorded three consecutive negative months in December. The main focus this week will be the December’s non-farm payrolls report, the first one after Federal Reserve raised rates.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The world’s most traded currency penetrated to the downside the multi-month consolidation area in December, with upper boundary the 1.0620 resistance level and lower boundary the 1.0500 support barrier. The pair surged above 1.0600 in thin liquidity conditions last week while the new year starts with the investors still wondering if the currency pair will hit parity. If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen then the euro will continue to weaken. Early this morning, the price opened with a gap to the downside and now is developing below the 1.0500 price level. The single currency may create an upward move for recovering the gap, however, a failed attempt of surpassing the latter level will move the price towards the 1.0352 support level. On the daily timeframe, technical indicators are still moving within the negative territory while the RSI indicator is sloping upwards. The MACD oscillator crossed its trigger line to the upside and is approaching its mid-level. 

EURUSDDaily030117

2. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling dropped more than 16.2% over the last year against the greenback due to Brexit concerns that will be the main focus at the beginning of the new year. The GBP/USD pair ended the year with a negative month while during last October hit a fresh low at 1.1978.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the short-term basis, the technical structure remained under pressure as the pair opened with a gap during yesterday’s session and dropped below the 1.2310 barrier. Although, currently the price is developing above the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart as well as, above the mid-level of the Bollinger band and is trying to recover the gap that created. If the price jumped above the 1.2310 resistance level, it will expose the price at 1.2390 key level but it needs to go through the upper band of the Bollinger band. The MACD oscillator entered the positive territory while it is rising above its trigger line.

 

GBPUSDH4030117

3. USD/JPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The USD/JPY pair surged more than 15% over the last three months as it recorded the third positive session in a row after Donald Trump’s victory on November 9th. The pair surged to 118.65 strong resistance level which is the new 11-month high following the strong rebound on the 99.00 support barrier.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

During the previous year, the currency pair started an aggressive rally to the upside with no significant retracement. The pair awaits the first non-farm payrolls report after the rise of the interest rates the previous month. Currently, the pair is trading lower and it is in the progress to return to its pre-gap level and may retest the 116.00 strong psychological level. A break below the latter level, it will open the way for the 114.80 support handle. Otherwise, the pair may challenge again the previous record high. On the daily chart, the technical indicators ticked lower, however, are still moving in a bullish territory. The MACD oscillator is holding below its trigger line but lies above the zero line while the RSI indicator is pointing downwards. 

USDJPYDaily030217

4. DAX 30 Index WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The German DAX 30 surged more than 7.7% over the last year and during yesterday’s session the index climbed to a fresh five-month high at 11621. The price was moving within a trading range until December 7th where the index broke the area to the upside with an aggressive rally.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Over the last month, the index surpassed the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA) to the upside and now is approaching the August 8th high at 11810. On the other side, if there is a penetration of the 11390 support barrier will slip the price towards the 11130 obstacle. Technical indicators seem to be in agreement with the bullish thought as both are moving in a positive territory. The RSI indicator holds within the overbought area while the MACD oscillator is moving slightly higher.

 

DE30CashDaily020117

5. WTI Crude Oil WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edged sharply higher over the last year and surged 46%the best gains since 2009. Oil prices rose in the first trading hours of 2017, however now is developing slightly lower.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The WTI is moving in an ascending move since August and is trading well above of the rising trend line. The price printed a new 17-month high while now is trying to retest it. A break above the aforementioned level will expose the crude oil towards the $57.60 resistance barrier. From a technical point of view, the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA) are pointing upwards and moving far away from the price. MACD is flattening with its trigger line above the mid-level while RSI is rising with some weak momentum and is approaching the 70 level. 

WTICrudeDaily030117

6. XAU/USD Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The precious metal added more than 9% to its value, however, it recorded the third red month in a row and met a fresh 11-month low at $1,122 support level. The XAU/USD pair is trading in a downward move following the bounce off the $1,375 resistance level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the short-term basis, the metal started a correction to the upside and if the price surpasses the $1,165 resistance barrier, it will open the door for the $1,197 handle which overlaps with the 100-weekly SMA but the 50-daily SMA seems to be an obstacle for the bulls. Technical indicators on the daily chart are biased higher as the MACD oscillator is rising and is approaching its mid-level. The RSI indicator is pointing upwards suggesting a stronger metal in the next few sessions.

 

XAUUSDDaily030117

7. Google STOCK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) stock rose 1.8% over the last year as the price is moving sideways with some solid upward move. During October, the stock hit a fresh high at $838.65, however, it rebounded on it and created a correction to the downside.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Technically, the price is moving lower and for now, we would expect the pressure to remain to the downside and the next level to watch, over intraday basis, will be the $754.00 and then the $742.00 region, a strong technical barrier. Although, the 200-daily SMA seem to be a strong obstacle for the bears and the price may have a pose before continues its downward move. The stock slipped below the 50 and 100 SMAs on the daily chart, endorsing the bearish attitude on price. The Relative Strength index (RSI) indicator is sloping downwards with strong momentum while it entered the negative territory. The MACD oscillator fell below its trigger line but is still lies above its neutral area.

GOOGDaily030117m

FX Weekly Market Preview

After Holidays Traders Expect FOMC Minutes and NFP Report

The market is still in the holiday mood while traders return. The trading session on Monday was completely quiet, as both NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges were closed as well as London’s and Tokyo’s. The forex market has some modest move, mainly during the Asian session but we will see very soon more volatile days. The FOMC minutes from the meeting the committee voted for a rate hike will be published on Wednesday and the NFP report for December on Friday. Moreover, Eurozone's flash CPI for December will be released on Wednesday.

U.S. Dollar Mixed Against the Majors
The U.S. dollar was traded mixed against the G10 currencies, while both the euro and the British pound faltered against the majors. There were no economic news or speeches from the U.S. on Monday and the greenback was traded mixed. Today, we have some data coming out, thus we would expect some moderate volatility on the scene. The U.S. Markit services PMI and the ISM non-manufacturing, December’s final figures will be released. The two spotlights for the buck this week are the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the U.S. jobs report on Friday.

Euro and Pound on a Weaker Footing Versus G10
The euro and the British pound were traded on a weaker footing against all its G10 counterparts on Monday and early Tuesday on the back of holidays. Though, both currencies hold against the Japanese yen. Eurozone’s Markit PMI showed that manufacturing sector in December kept the same pace of growth as the first estimation at 54.9 – figure above 50.0 indicates expansion. In Germany, the factory activity rose more at 55.6 marginally above market forecasts of 55.5. No news came out from U.K.

What to Watch Today
We will start the day with the announcement of the unemployment rate in Germany, which is expected to be unchanged for the second month in a row. The U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI for December will be closely watched while is predicted to slow down to 53.0 from 53.4 the month prior. Going to the U.S., the Markit manufacturing PMI is going to be published as well as, the ISM manufacturing PMI. The last one is expected to tick higher at 53.5 from 53.2 the previous month while the ISM prices paid will rose with a faster pace to 56.0 from 54.5 before. Moreover, the construction spending will come out in the afternoon.

USD03012017 Strategic

EUR03012017 Strategic

 

Friday, 30 December 2016 07:57

Gold Surged and Almost Hit Our Target

Published in Commodites & Metals

The precious metal is recording the third red consecutive month, however, the last three days it surged more than 2% and is approaching our first target, that we recommended on a previous analysis (see technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2iLBwfX). The XAU/USD pair is moving higher ahead the holidays and if the gold breaks the $1,165 resistance level to the upside, it will open the way for the next barrier at $1,197 but it needs to go through the 50-daily SMA. Otherwise, a rebound on the $1,160 barrier will move the price back to the $1,140 support level.

The technical structure suggests further upside movement as the technical indicators moved higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose but now is flattening slightly above the 50 level while the MACD oscillator is rising and is moving towards its mid-level.

XAUUSDDaily301216.png

Published in Daily Market Report

The last week of the year came to an end with significantly low volatility, as it was expected. This week, the U.S. dollar faced some weakness after three weeks of solid gains.

Tuesday, 27 December 2016 08:03

Strategic Report, 2016 Newsletter 52

Published in Strategic Report

 

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The world’s most traded currency – the EUR/USD pair – is moving lower, -1.34% so far this month, and is ready to snap the third negative month in a row. The euro dropped to its lowest since January 2003 against the greenback and met the 1.0352 price level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The single currency managed to surpass the 1.0500 strong psychological barrier, however, the pair had a rebound on it and stuck below the latter level. As this period is very quiet for the marker, the common currency will continue developing sideways within the 1.0352 – 1.0500 significant zone. The next level to watch is the lower band or the upper band of the consolidation area. The RSI indicator is flattening while it is still moving in a negative territory. Also, the MACD indicator crossed its trigger line to the upside but is holding below the zero line. Looking ahead to the coming year, we hope to see a rally in the pair between 1.0500 and 1.0600. Otherwise, if there is a break below the fresh 14-year low the price will slip until the 1.0200 support level.

 

EURUSDDaily271216

2. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling continued to trade lower versus the U.S. dollar for the third negative week in a row and plummeted more than 3.5%. The GBP/USD pair recorded a fresh almost 2-month low and challenged the 1.2230 strong support level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Last week, it was a light week in terms of U.K. data and as we mentioned in a previous analysis, the cable’s weakness can be attributed to ongoing concerns about Brexit. Now, the pair is developing near the 1.2280 price level as it gets stuck below the 1.2310 resistance barrier. During this week, we expect a quiet market due to holidays, so the price will continue developing with some weak momentum. If the pair slips below the 1.2230 support obstacle, it will open the way for the 1.2200 critical level. Otherwise, an upward penetration of the 1.2310 resistance level, will expose the pair towards 1.2390. Technical indicators are following a negative path while RSI is moving slightly above the 30 level with some weak and MACD is holding above from its trigger line.

GBPUSDH4271216

3. USD/JPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Last week it was a quiet trading week for the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen as it is consolidating within the 116.50 – 118.65 strong area after the rebound on the previous 11-month high. The USD/JPY pair seems virtually unchanged and for the next days we are waiting to continue developing within the referred area.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

From the technical point of view, on the daily chart, the pair opened with a gap to the downside during yesterday’s session and now is trying to recover the lost ground, however, the price is moving with very low volatility. Currently, the pair is trading slightly below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart which seems to be a strong return point for the bears until the 116.50 barrier. Although, if the price plunges below the lower boundary of the sideways channel, it will open the door for a retest of the 114.80 key level. On the other side, a break above the 118.65 will expose the pair at the 120.00 strong critical level. Technical indicators are endorsing the downward movement as both are moving lower. The RSI is moving below its 70 level and is sloping downwards, while the MACD is in the positive territory, below its trigger line.

 

USDJPYDaily271216

4. FTSE100 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The FTSE100 index edged sharply higher over this month and surged more than 4% following the strong support that found on the 100-weekly SMA which overlaps with the 6510 barrier. The price continues the aggressive rally to the upside, despite the ongoing concerns about Brexit

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the medium-term timeframe, the three SMAs are pointing upwards while the 50 is approaching the other two. In the next sessions, a bullish crossover will create while the price is developing well above them. Going to the daily chart, the price had a rebound on the 6650 barrier which is near the 50 and 100 SMAs. The next level to watch is the 7130 resistance level, if there is a penetration to the upside of the 7065 strong obstacle. Technical indicators are confirming the recent bullish attitude as both are following a positive path. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising and is approaching the 70 level whilst the MACD oscillator lies above its trigger and zero lines. 

UK100CashDaily231216

5. WTI Crude Oil WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Oil prices are trading sideways pre-New Year holiday trading session with markets adopting a wait-and-see stance less than a week before the first output cut deal agreed between OPEC and non-OPEC member in 15 years is scheduled to start.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is looking bullish in the short-term timeframe, as well as, on the medium-term chart. The oil is creating an aggressive rally to the upside following the strong bounce off the 100-weekly SMA and is printing the second positive month in a row. The price is still developing in an ascending trend as it is trading well above the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMAs) on the daily chart, while the technical indicators lie on the positive territory. The RSI indicator is pointing upwards whilst the MACD oscillator holds below its trigger line and above the zero line. So, if the price surpasses the $54.00 strong psychological resistance barrier it will move towards the $55.25 level.

 

WTICrudeDaily271216

6. XAU/USD Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The yellow metal is creating an aggressive sell-off since October as it slipped more than 13% and is recording the third red consecutive month. The XAU/USD affected from the U.S. dollar sharp rally to the upside during the previous weeks, as well as, from its weak momentum over the last days due to holidays.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the daily chart, the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA) are sloping downwards with strong momentum while the technical indicators are following a negative path. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing upwards while the MACD oscillator crossed its trigger line to the upside and is moving higher. If the price penetrates to the upside the $1,1140 resistance obstacle, it will open the door for a retest of the critical level at $1.165. Otherwise, a break below the $1,122 will drive the price towards the $1,072 barrier.

XAUUSDDaily271216

7. EasyJet STOCK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Easy Jet (EZJ:LSE) is trading within a symmetrical triangle over the last three months after the sharp sell-off in June. The price opened with a gap to the downside and failed to recover it as it is developing near the $1031 price level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The technical structure suggests further upside movement and a penetration of the upper band of the pattern. The price now is trading slightly below the latter level, however, it surpassed the 100-SMA on the daily chart. A break above the descending trend line will expose the price towards the $1110 strong resistance level. On the other hand, the stock may find a strong obstacle for the bulls and return back to the $960 support barrier. Technical indicators are moving in a positive area with some weak momentum. The RSI indicator is flattening above the 50 level while the MACD oscillator holds above both, its trigger and zero lines.

EZJ.LDaily231216

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: December 27 - 30; Market Quiet Amid Holidays

During last week the sterling continued to lose ground against the majors due to the ongoing Brexit concerns, more than 1.8% against the buck. The greenback bolstered from Yellen’s speech at the beginning of the week, as she appeared optimistic for the improvement in the labour market and the economy in general but later it slipped from its 14-year high against the G10 basket. Though, it managed to end the week higher against the G10 currencies as the GDP for the third quarter surprised positively. The U.S. economy grew by 3.5% annualized in Q3, the second upward revise for the preliminary figure of 3.2% and 2.9%.

Additionally, since last week the sterling plunged against all the G10 currencies due to the uncertainty that exists over Brexit. The British pound fell especially against the Swedish Krona and dropped more than 3% while the GBP/USD pair created a fresh almost 2-month low. The greenback continues its upward rally and shored up versus all the G10 basket, except the Swedish Krona.

Given the holidays due to Christmas and New Year celebrations, started last week and going on until the first week January, – the action may be somewhat limited over the next few sessions. The rest of the week we have smattering low level data coming out from various countries, that we don’t expect to trigger significant volatility in the market. You can find below the schedule of the public holidays of the major markets.

Today, the London Stock Exchange will be closed due to Boxing day (observed). Additionally, today is a public holiday for the three commodity countries, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. In U.S., the final consumer confidence for December will be released, as well as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Richmond will release its monthly surveys regarding factory activity in their states in December. Overnight, Japanese preliminary figure for the industrial production of November is expected.

On Wednesday morning, the U.K. BBA mortgage approvals in December are expected to be released and later in the day, the respective indicator for U.S., MBA mortgage applications for the week to December 25 will be out as well. In the U.S., we expect also the pending home sales for November and API weekly crude oil stock. During the night, Bank of Japan will publish its Summary of Opinions report with its projections for the inflation and economic growth.

On Thursday morning, Eurozone’s private loans for November and M3 money supply are expected. In the U.S., the weekly jobless claims are set to come out. The preliminary wholesale inventories and the goods trade balance, both for November, will be released.


On Friday, no major economic indicators or speeches are scheduled. The London Stock Exchange will close process commences from 12:30 GMT due to New Year’s Eve celebrations.

Here's to a happy and healthy 2017, and all the best from the JFD Research team!

May this Christmas bring you all the love and luck in the world! Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

There's much we are looking forward to bringing to you in 2017, which you will be able to find on JFD Research website – stay tuned.

USGDP27122016

MarketHolidays2016 17

 

Tuesday, 20 December 2016 08:32

XAU/USD Recorded a Fresh 11-Month Low

Published in Commodites & Metals

The precious metal created an aggressive sell-off since October as it plunged more than 13% and recorded the sixth negative week in a row. The XAU/USD affected from the U.S. dollar sharp rally to the upside and is falling for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the pair printed a fresh 11-month trend low at $1,122 following the significant bounce off the $1,337 resistance handle.

On the daily chart, the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA) are sloping downwards with strong momentum while the technical indicators are following a negative path. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing downwards and is moving in an oversold area. The MACD oscillator crossed its trigger line to the downside while it lies below its mid-level. The next strong support level to watch is the $1,072 if there is a break below the $1,114 - $1.122 support zone. Although, do not forget the scenario for a correction to the upside until the $1,160 barrier as the price was moving higher the previous three days.

XAUUSDDaily201216.png

Published in Daily Market Report

Even though the economic calendar was very quiet on Monday, Yellen’s speech at a university graduation underpinned the U.S. dollar. The euro and British pound have been traded virtually unchanged in the absence of heavyweight numbers. Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged as expected.

Monday, 19 December 2016 08:59

Strategic Report, 2016 Newsletter 51

Published in Strategic Report

 

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The euro was developing at its weakest level as it created a fresh 14-year low at 1.0366 during last week, versus the greenback, and probably we could see parity in the coming months. The EUR/USD pair recorded the third negative week in a row and dropped more than 2%.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The most traded currency was establishing within a trading range in a weekly timeframe since April, with upper boundary the 1.1620 resistance level and lower boundary the 1.0505. So, last week, it confirmed the penetration of the consolidation area to the downside as it ended the week below the latter level and now it may begin a downward potential move until the 1.0200 strong support level which coincides with the second support of the weekly pivot points. Despite that, the single currency is trading slightly higher the last two days near the 1.0470 price level. If the price surpasses the 1.0505 resistance handle, it will open the way for a retest of the 1.0700 psychological barrier but it needs to go through the first resistance level of the pivot points at 1.0620. The RSI indicator is sloping upwards with weak momentum while the MACD oscillator lies below its trigger and zero lines.

 

EURUSDDaily191216

2. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling dropped to the bottom of its month at 1.2375 versus the U.S. dollar despite that U.K. data was mostly better than expected during last week. The pair penetrated the ascending trend line which was holding since October 25 to the downside and plunged more than 1.8%.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The GBP/USD pair rebounded on the 1.2360 – 1.2380 strong support level and now is developing near the 1.2480 price level. Also, the pair could bounce off the 50-daily SMA and will move towards the 1.2530 resistance barrier. On the 4-hour chart, the next obstacle for the price would be the 200-SMA which is now slightly above the current market price. The 50-SMA is ready to have a bearish crossover with the 100-SMA endorsing the downward attitude. The MACD oscillator is rising and is moving above its trigger line, however, it is still into a negative path. The RSI indicator is sloping upwards while is below the 50 level.

GBPUSDH4191216

3. USD/JPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Federal Reserve Bank gave investors a strong reason to continue buying U.S. dollar this past week. Fed Chair Yellen called the expectation for three instead of two rate hikes into next year as a ‘modest adjustment’ and drove the USD/JPY pair towards a new 11-month high at 118.65.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Over the last six months, the pair is moving with an aggressive move and surged more than 13% with nothing being an obstacle for recording multi-month high. The pair rose 2.24% last week and bounced off the 118.65 resistance level. Currently, is trading near the 117.30 price level and is approaching the 116.10 support barrier. On the other side, a penetration of the previous high will expose the price towards the 120.00 psychological level. On the daily chart, the 100-SMA is moving upwards and crossed above the 200-SMA indicating a strong momentum. However, the technical indicators are sloping downwards while both are still holding in a positive territory. The MACD oscillator is moving lower against the previous periods, as well as the RSI indicator is ready to get below the 70 level.

 

USDJPYDaily191216

4. GERMAN DAX 30 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The DAX 30 German index is having an interesting month as the price surged more than 7% so far this month and recorded an almost 4-month new high at 11452 price level. During the previous two weeks, the index broke the consolidation area that was holding since August to the upside with strong momentum.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The technical structure suggests further upside momentum if there is a penetration of the aforementioned fresh high. On the other hand, the price may create a retracement until the 11132 support level and then continue its upward momentum. The price is trading well above its moving averages while the technical indicators corrected overbought readings. The RSI indicator is holding near the 70 level with some weak momentum while the MACD oscillator is rising above both, its trigger and zero lines. 

DE30CashDaily191216

5. Brent Crude Oil WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Brent Crude Oil is moving higher, more than 14% so far the last two months, as well as it is recording the second positive month in a row. The oil is moving within an ascending move over the five months and during the previous week, it created a fresh 17-month high at $57.60.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The daily chart shows that the price is now moving well above the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA) between the $47.00 and $53.50 barriers. The technical indicators are sloping upwards and they are moving above its mid-levels. The RSI indicator lies above the 50 level and is approaching the 70 barrier while the MACD oscillator is moving near its trigger line. For now, we would expect the pressure to remain to the upside as the technical structure suggests further upside movement until the latter level as the price moving near the $56.00 price level.

 

BrentCrudeDaily191216

6. XAU/USD Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The precious metal created an aggressive sell-off since October as it plunged more than 13% and recorded the sixth negative week in a row. The XAU/USD affected from the U.S. dollar sharp rally to the upside and is falling for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the pair printed a fresh 11-month trend low at $1,122 following the significant bounce off the $1,337 resistance handle.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the daily chart, the three SMAs (50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA) are pointing downwards with strong momentum while the technical indicators are following a negative path. The Relative Strength is pointing upwards Index (RSI) despite that is moving in an oversold area. The MACD oscillator crossed its trigger line to the downside while it lies below its mid-level. The next strong support level to watch is the $1,055 but do not forget the most probable scenario for a correction to the upside until the $1,160 barrier as the price is moving higher the last two days.

 

XAUUSDDaily191216

7. Apple Inc. STOCK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been in an uptrend since June 2016 rising 24.6% up to $118.70 before it had a big retracement down to $104.00, finding support on the aforementioned psychological level and the 200-SMA on the daily chart. Looking on the most recent candles, the stock recorded five straight winning days surpassing both the 50 and the 100 SMAs on the daily chart and the $112.40 barrier with momentum to the upside.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The stock is now finding resistance at the $116.20 level and if the price falls below $115.70, we would expect a small pullback at its 50-SMA on the daily chart, near $114.00 before it continues north. Otherwise, a successful penetration of $116.20 will bolster the price up to $118.70, the previous high. The RSI is rising towards its 70 level, though without strong momentum prompting a small retracement while the MACD oscillator is rising above its trigger line, in the positive territory endorsing our bullish view.

 

AAPLDaily19122016

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Dec 19 - 23; BoJ Policy Meeting, U.S. and U.K. GDP Ahead

We are heading to the week before the Christmas’ holidays and traders must take advantage of it, as next week the volatility will probably be very thin. This week we have the BoJ interest rate decision and the RBA meeting minutes to expect. Moreover, the U.S. final GDP for the Q3 and durable goods orders for November to come out, as well as the U.K. final GDP for Q3.

Monday started with the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook of Australia and continues with the German IFO Survey. The three indicators of the survey, expectations, business climate and current assessment are expected to have minor changes in December or no changes at all. We continue the day with Eurozone’s labor cost for Q3 and the flash Markit services PMI for U.S. which completes the composite PMI figure. Overnight, the RBA meeting minutes will be published. Moreover, the Bank of Japan will have its interest rate decision and they will release their monetary policy statement. No changes are expected at the current negative rate policy, at -0.1%.

On Tuesday, in the morning, German PPI for November is expected to improve to -0.2% yoy from -0.4% the previous month. Later in the Asian session, the New Zealand’s trade balance for November is coming out, as well as the imports and exports for the same month.

On Wednesday morning, in the U.K., November’s public sector net borrowing will be published. Later in the day, the SNB will release its quarterly bulletin. The EIA crude oil stockpiles weekly report will be released as well. Afterwards, attention will be turned to New Zealand’s GDP for the third quarter. Overnight, in the U.K., the Gfk consumer confidence for December is coming out.

Thursday is the busiest day of the week. In the Eurozone, the economic bulletin report is expected to be published and the GDP growth in the U.S., the major indicator of the week. The Gross Domestic Product price index in the U.S. which is estimated to remain stable at 3.2% annualized in the third quarter. The personal income and personal spending for November will be released after noon, as well as the durable goods orders also for November, and will be closely watched as they are main indicators for a solid economic growth. The durable goods orders are forecasted to slow down 4.4% versus a rise of 4.6% in October. The housing price index for October and the CB leading indicator for November are also coming out.

On Friday morning, the German Gfk consumer confidence survey will be released, and later on, attention will shift to U.K.’s GDP growth for Q3. No forecasts are available yet. In the U.S., the new home sales change for November is also coming out.

USGDP22122016

UKGDP23122016

 

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