Strategic Report

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Latest Articles

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The EUR/USD pair has been traded in a narrow range within 1.15 cent range over the past two weeks and on Friday the price jumped to the top of the range on the back of softer U.S. data. The consolidation area has an upper boundary at 1.1690 and a lower boundary at 1.1575. It is worth to mention that the single currency is posting a neutral month against the greenback and is awaiting a significant event for a breakout.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

From the technical point of view, the price is developing below the 200-week SMA and if there is a climb above it will open the door for the 50-day SMA near 1.1750. On the other side, if the price slips below 1.1575 will move towards the 1.1490 support level. Remaining on the short-term timeframe, the RSI indicator is pointing to the downside below the 50 level, whilst the MACD oscillator is rising in the negative path.

EURUSDDaily131117

2. USD/CAD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The USD/CAD pair dropped sharply since the beginning of the month and we would not be surprised by a relief move. The commodity currency pair recorded two straight negative weeks, plunging more than 1%. Also, the price hit the ascending trend line that is holding over the last two months and slipped beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level with low at 1.2060 and high at 1.2915.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Additionally, during the last hours, the pair is creating a slightly upward movement and is approaching the aforementioned fibo level. However, if the price continues the downward tendency will touch the 1.2625 support level, which coincides with the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart. The technical indicators are confirming the recent falling momentum as the RSI indicator is pointing to the downside and the stochastic oscillator is creating a bearish crossover with its moving averages. Also, the 50-SMA posted a downward cross with the 100-SMA indicating for further sell-off on price.

USDCADH4131117

3. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling printed a slightly positive week versus the greenback, however, the GBP/USD pair is creating a negative month. The cable plummeted more than 1.4% so far this month, and challenged several times the rising trend line over the last days. The next levels to have in mind is the significant support area 1.3000 – 1.3040 if the price breaks the diagonal line to the downside.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Technically, on the daily timeframe, the price is developing well below the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, while they are sloping to the downside. The MACD oscillator is flattening in the negative territory with weak momentum, while the RSI indicator is pointing down after the strong rebound on the 50 level.

GBPUSDDaily131117

Risk Disclosure

Trading Foreign Exchange and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Risk Disclosure

4. German DAX 30 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The German DAX 30 printed two consecutive positive months and exposed the price towards a fresh all-time high at 13534 price level. Also, the index rose more than 9% this month but now is posting a downward movement after the bounce off the new high. The price tried to touch the 13095 support barrier for a pullback but if it falls below it will meet the 50-day SMA near 12993.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Currently, the index is trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level with low at 11860 and high at 13534, so the scenario for a bullish move is probable. On the daily timeframe, the technical indicators are endorsing the bearish scenario. The RSI indicator fell below its mid-level and the MACD oscillator is moving lower in the positive territory below its trigger line.

DE30CashDaily131117

5.  XAU/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The precious metal is posting a negative movement after the bounce off the $1,288 resistance level as it failed to hit again the $1,306 obstacle. On a weekly basis, the XAU/USD pair is still developing in an uptrend since December 2016 and rose more than 8.8%. The next level to watch to the downside is the $1,261 - $1.263 support zone.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the daily chart, the yellow metal plunged below the bearish crossover within the 50 and 100 SMAs signaling for further sell-off, while the technical indicators are moving higher with weak momentum. The RSI indicator is moving below the 50 level and the MACD oscillator is slightly rising in the negative area.

XAUUSDDaily131117

6. WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil had an aggressive bullish run in the previous weeks as it posted the fifth green week in a row. Also, the WTI extended its gains the previous week and printed a new more than two-year high at $58.06. The price added more than 25% to its performance since June but now is developing with weak momentum.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The technical indicators on the short-term chart, are confirming the recent weak momentum as both are moving lower. The RSI indicator lies in the overbought zone, however, it is sloping south. Moreover, the stochastic oscillator is approaching the oversold area. In case of a break below $56.70 will move the price towards $55.70.

WTICrudeDaily131117

7. McDonald's WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

McDonald’s fast food restaurant chain (NYSE: MCD) stock price is developing within an uptrend move over the last six years and added more than 90% to its performance exploring the price towards $170.85. Since last November the stock posted eleven green months out of twelve, following the rebound on $110.80 support level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Going to the daily timeframe, the price now is facing a bearish correction as the price is trying to hit the $162.75 support level after it managed to challenge the $170.85 resistance level. If the price continues the downward tendency and slips below the 50 and 100 SMAs will meet the $153.20 barrier.

MCDDaily131117

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Nov 13 - Nov 17; A Heavy Economic Calendar Ahead This Week

A plethora of market indicators that will influence the market are scheduled for this week. In the Euro area, the CPI and GDP will be closely monitored, while in the U.K. CPI, GDP and employment report will be released. The U.S. CPI is also coming out.

Today is Remembrance Day in Canada, thus low volatility is expected to the Canadian dollar. In the European afternoon, the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will give a speech that will be monitored by traders. In the U.S., the monthly budget statement for October is expected to show a deficit of $50B against a surplus of $8B the prior month.

Tomorrow morning, the German GDP and CPI figures for the third quarter and October respectively will be released, while later in the day attention will be paid to the U.K. CPI. Consumer prices are predicted to have risen by 3.1% in October from 3.0% in September, year-over-year.

The retail price index and the PPI also for October will be published as well. At 10:00 GMT, the ZEW survey for the German economic sentiment and the current situation in November as well as for Eurozone’s economic sentiment will be eyed.

In the Euro area, traders will keep a close eye on the preliminary GDP for the third quarter. Market consensus suggests that the economy will keep the same pace of growth of 2.5%. Eurozone’s industrial production for September is also coming out. In the second half of the day, the U.S. PPI will be posted and overnight, the Japanese preliminary GDP for Q3 will be announced.

EUGDP141117

On Wednesday morning, the U.K. employment report will be published. Average earnings including the bonus for September are forecasted to have increased 2.1% the three months to September, from 2.2% before. No change is expected to the 4.3% ILO unemployment rate in September. In the Euro area, the trade balance for September will be released.

Afterwards, attention will turn to the U.S. The headline inflation rate is expected to slow down to 2.0% for the month of October from 2.2% before. Moreover, the retail sales for October is expected to fall at 0.1% from 1.6% the previous month. Overnight, Australian employment report for October and the consumer inflation expectation for November will be monitored by AUD traders.

USCPI151117

On Thursday, the U.K. retail sales are coming out early in the morning and later the highlight of the day is the Eurozone’s CPI report. The inflation rate in the Euro area is predicted to be stable to 1.4% in October. In the afternoon, the U.S. jobless claims will be released, as well as the import and export prices indexed for October and the industrial production, also for October. In addition, NAHB housing market index for November is coming out.

The last day of the week, the current account and the construction output for the 19-nation union will be released. After that, the U.S. building permits and the housing starts for October are on the list. In Canada, the CPI report for October and the retails sales for November will be released.

Weekly Economic Calendar

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