Strategic Report

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Technical Analysis



EUR/USD surged last week after it hit support near the 1.1920 level. On Friday, the rate emerged above the key resistance zone of 1.2090, marked by the peak of 8th of September, and then above the 1.2125 line, defined by the inside swing low of the 30th of December 2014. The rally also brought the rate above the upper bound of the upside channel that had been containing the price action since late October. In our view, the latest rally confirms a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signals the continuation of the prevailing longer-term uptrend.


Now the rate looks ready to challenge the 1.2250 resistance zone, marked by the inside swing low of the 8th of December 2014, where a decisive break is possible to set the stage for the psychological figure of 1.2500.

Our daily oscillators reveal strong upside speed and support the case for the pair to continue trading north. The RSI rebounded from its upside support line, slightly above 50, and crossed above its 70 line. The MACD, already positive, crossed back above its trigger line.

On the downside, a dip back below 1.2090 may signal a corrective move, perhaps for a test near the crossroads of the 1.1920 support level and the lower bound of the aforementioned upside channel.

EURUSDDaily 150118



GBP/USD also skyrocketed. The rally came after the pair found support at the crossroads of the 1.3465 barrier and the short-term upside support line drawn from the low of the 13th of November. On Friday, the rate emerged above the 1.3660 level, confirming a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart and signaling the continuation of the prevailing upside path marked by the uptrend line taken from the low of the 14th of March.


If the bulls remain on the driver’s seat, we would expect them to aim for the 1.3830 resistance obstacle, defined by the inside swing low of the 29th of February 2016. A clear break above that hurdle is likely to see scope for extensions towards the psychological round figure of 1.4000, marked by the inside swing lows of 6th of April and 16th of June 2016.

The case for further upside is also supported by our daily momentum studies. The RSI rebounded from slightly above its 50 line and just crossed above 70, while the MACD sands above both its zero and trigger lines pointing up.

If the bulls fail to maintain their momentum and the rate retreats below 1.3620 and the short-term upside support line taken from the low of the 13th of November, then we may see another test near 1.3465.

GBPUSDDaily 150118



USD/JPY collapsed last week, falling below the key support (now turned into resistance) territory of 112.00. The slide was paused near the 111.05 on Friday, but during the Asian morning Monday, sellers took charge again and pushed the rate lower for a test near 110.65. USD/JPY continues to trade within the broader sideways path that’s been in place since the 15th of March, between 108.30 and 114.40. Therefore, we still see a neutral bigger picture. 


Having said that though, we see the likelihood for the latest slide to continue in the short-term. A clear and decisive dip below 110.65 is possible to see scope for more bearish extensions, perhaps towards our next support level of 109.60.

Our daily momentum indicators detect strong downside speed and support the notion. The RSI edged lower and just crossed below its 30 line, while the MACD stands below both its zero and trigger lines, pointing down.

On the upside, a break back above 111.05 may signal that USD/JPY entered recovery mode, and may open the way for a test near 112.00, as a resistance this time.

USDJPYDaily 150118

Risk Disclosure

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Risk Disclosure



USD/CAD edged north on Wednesday, but hit resistance at 1.2585 and for the last two days of the week, it was in a retreat mode. Bearing in mind that the rate continues to trade below 1.2650, the lower bound of the sideways range that contained the price action from the 27th of October until the 28th of December, we believe that the medium-term outlook remains somewhat negative.


Therefore, we expect USD/CAD to continue drifting lower and perhaps challenge once again the 1.2355 support level. If sellers prove strong enough to overcome that support hurdle, this would confirm a forthcoming lower low and may set the stage for our next support zone of 1.2250, marked by the low of the 22nd of September.

Looking at our daily oscillators, we see that the RSI, already below 50, has turned down again. The MACD is negative, but above its trigger line. Nevertheless, it shows signs that it could start turning south as well.

On the upside, a move back above 1.2700 would signal that the pair is back within the aforementioned sideways range and is possible to pave the way for the 1.2920 territory, the range’s upper boundary.

USDCADDaily 150118



Gold traded north last week, breaking three resistance (now turned into support) barriers in a row. At the time of writing, the metal is trading slightly above the 1340 hurdle. Bearing in mind that on the 29th of December, gold emerged above the psychological round zone of 1300 and then above 1306, we believe that the medium-term picture is positive.


We believe that the break above 1340 may have opened the way for our next resistance zone of 1357, defined by the peak of the 8th of September.  On the other hand, if the bulls fail to maintain their current momentum, a retreat back below 1335 may challenge the 1325 barrier as a support this time.

Taking a look at our daily momentum indicators, we see that the RSI turned north and crossed back above its 70 line, while the MACD, already above its trigger line, has turned again up. These indicators detect strong upside speed and corroborate our view that the precious metal may be poised to continue trading north for a while more.

XAUUSDDaily 150118



Brent Crude Oil continued trending up, breaking above the resistance (now turned into support) barrier of 68.00. The price continues to print higher peaks and higher troughs above the uptrend line taken from the low of the 21st of June and as such, we think that the medium-term outlook remains positive.


At the time of writing, Brent looks to be headed for a test near the psychological round figure of 70.00, where an upside break is likely to open the door for our next resistance territory of 73.00, defined by the peaks of the 1st and 2nd of December 2014.

As for our momentum indicators, the RSI stands above its 70 line, while the MACD lies above both its zero and trigger lines. These indicators confirm the recent bullish momentum of the price action. However, the MACD may have started topping, and thus, for now, we are mindful that a corrective setback may be in the works before, and if, the bulls decide to aim for territories above 70.00.

A dip back below 68.00 could confirm the case for a corrective retreat and could pave the way for the crossroads of the 66.40 support and the upside line taken from the low of the 31st of August.

BrentCrudeDaily 150118



FTSE 100 continued aiming for unseen territories. On the 27th of December, the index broke above the upper bound of the sideways range that had been containing the price action since the 24th of April, between 7200 and 7600. The exit signaled the continuation of the prevailing uptrend, with the index entering a rally mode.


We believe that the bulls are likely to continue dominating and aiming for new highs. However, given how steep the latest rally is, and also bearing in mind our momentum indicators, we have to sound a note of caution. We stay careful of a corrective setback, perhaps for a test near 7745 as a support this time. If that level does not hold, then the retreat may continue towards our next support of 7690.

As we already noted, our daily oscillators are one of the reasons we are mindful of a possible correction. The RSI stands above 70, but it has started to flatten, while the MACD although above both its zero and trigger lines, it has started to top.

UK100CashDaily 150118

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Jan 15 – Jan 19; BoC Decides on Policy. UK CPIs and Retail Sales Also in Focus

The BoC holds its first monetary policy gathering for 2018 and expectations are for the Bank to start the year with an interest rate increase. In the UK, inflation is expected to have moderated in December, while both headline and core retail sales for the month are expected to have declined.

Monday is a relatively light day in terms of economic releases and events. Markets in the US will be closed in celebration of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

The only release worth mentioning is Eurozone’s trade data, but no forecast is currently available.

On Tuesday, the main release is likely to be the UK CPI data for December. Expectations are for headline inflation to have moderated to 3.0% yoy from 3.1%, and the core rate to have ticked down to 2.6% yoy from 2.7%. Although this would mark the first slides in 6 months, inflation is still well above the BoE’s inflation target, and it remains to be seen whether this was the peak. The Bank’s forecasts from the November inflation report suggest that inflation may continue to soften through 2018, with the headline inflation rate hitting 2.4% in the last quarter of the year. We also get the nation’s PPI data.

UK CPIs 150118

In the US, the New York Empire state manufacturing index is expected to have remained unchanged.

On Wednesday, the highlight is likely to be the BoC rate decision. At its previous gathering, the Bank decided to refrain from acting, while in the statement accompanying the decision, it maintained the part saying that the Governing Council will continue to be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. However, in an interview a few days after that meeting, Governor Poloz clarified that caution does not mean sitting back and doing nothing, while data has been flashing the green light for policymakers to go ahead and push the hike button. Both the headline and core inflation rates rose notably in November, the December jobs report revealed another month of stellar employment gains, while retail sales accelerated strongly in October. The icing on the cake was the BoC Business Outlook Survey for Q4, which showed an overall robust picture for Canada’s sales and business investment.

Having said all these, there are still reasons for the Bank to hold off from acting so soon, ranging from the still-below-target core inflation rate to NAFTA uncertainties. Also, a strong Canadian dollar could start weighing on the nation’s exports and inflation, something that policymakers may not be comfortable with. However, we have to repeat that the scenario where the Bank remains sidelined is the least likely at the moment.

Canada rate 150118

As for the economic data, during the Asian day, Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index for January and home loans for November are coming out. No forecast is available for either release.

During the European morning, Eurozone’s final CPI for December is expected to confirm the preliminary estimate of +1.4% yoy.

Later in the US, industrial production for December is expected to have accelerated somewhat, to +0.3% mom from 0.2% in November. The NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) housing market index for January is also coming out. The Fed also releases the Beige Book, a report describing the economic conditions in each of the 12 US Fed districts.

On Thursday, Australia’s employment report for December is likely to attract attention. The unemployment rate is forecast to have remained unchanged at 5.4%, while the net change in employment is expected to show that the economy added 18k jobs, much less than it did the previous month (61.6k).

From China, we get GDP data for Q4. We will also get the nation’s industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment, all for December. Industrial production is forecast to have slowed for the 3rd consecutive month on a yoy basis, while the fixed asset investment yoy rate is expected to see its 6th straight slide. Retail sales are also forecast to slow somewhat, after they rebounded in November. All these indicators support the GDP forecast, which suggests that the growth rate has ticked down to 6.7% from 6.8%.

Later in the day, from the US, we get building permits and housing starts for December, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for January.

Finally on Friday, the main release is likely to be the UK retail sales data for December. Headline sales are expected to have slid 0.6% mom, while core sales are expected to have declined 0.8% mom. That said, such slides would drive the yoy rates up notably, due to the fact that the large monthly tumbles of December 2016 will now drop out of the yearly calculations. Nevertheless, given that the BRC retail sales monitor for the month revealed an unchanged yoy rate, we see downside risks to the forecasts. Perhaps both the headline and core sales fell by more than anticipated in monthly terms.

UK retailsales 150118

From the Eurozone, we get the bloc’s current account data for November, and Germany’s PPI for December.

In the US, the preliminary UoM (University of Michigan) Consumer Sentiment Index for January is coming out, alongside the UoM 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations.

Canada’s manufacturing sales are also to be released.

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