Barbara NICODEMOU

Market Analyst, JFD Brokers

Barbara Nicodemou joined JFD Brokers in 2015 as a Market Analyst for the strategy team at JFD Research.

Barbara focuses on analysis of a range of markets including Forex, Indices and Commodities. Her trading approach of the micro – macroeconomic view of the market in collaboration with the technical analysis, creates a trustworthy overview of the market's bias for medium and long-term investing opportunities.

She holds a Bachelor Degree of Mathematics from the University College of London and a Master's Degree in Business Mathematics at National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in collaboration with the Athens University of Economics and Business.

Euro jumped to new record highs following the ECB President Draghi’s comments, while U.S. dollar weakness pushed EUR/USD even higher. Greenback is falling as Trump’s administration continues to disappoint. Loonie is rising ahead of retail and consumer price index was released.

Japanese yen slipped as the BoJ cut inflation forecasts. Meanwhile, the euro plunged versus all majors ahead of the ECB policy meeting while AUD/USD topped at 0.7988, a two-year high before the strong sell-off followed. Trump is trying to find a new healthcare plan and steps forward for tax reform.

Wednesday, 19.07.2017, 10:00

London Gas Oil Future is Picking Up (M15)

Published in Commodites & Metals

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Greenback extended its weakness as economic indicators and political developments pushed it even lower. Gold run sharply higher due to the U.S. dollar's weakness and British uncertainty, while British pound plunged widely from the U.K. CPI's first drop in 10-months.

Australian dollar surged to a two-year high versus the U.S. dollar, supported from the hawkish RBA minutes and U.S. dollar weakness. Trump needs two more votes to pass his healthcare bill which is difficult to get. Euro boosted from EZ CPI report while British pound dropped due to Brexit talks.

Monday, 17.07.2017, 06:38

Strategic Report, 2017 Newsletter 29

Published in Strategic Report

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The big focus of the market this week will be the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. After rising to a 14-month high at 1.1490 during the week before, the EUR/USD pair failed to expand its gains above the strong psychological level at 1.1500. Currently, the price is in the process in complete the fifth green month in a row following the bounce off the 1.0500 significant barrier.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

From a technical point of view, on a weekly basis, the common currency pair is still looking bullish while on the short-term timeframe, the price seems to have neutral momentum. Moreover, the MACD oscillator is developing within the positive path but is flattening below the trigger line. The RSI indicator lies between the 50 and 70 level and is sloping to the downside. Our expectation is a decline move until the 1.1370 support level and then a continuation of the rising.

EURUSDDaily170717

2. GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

Sterling recorded a strong bullish week against the greenback and surged more than 1.5%. The GBP/USD pair had an aggressive rally on Friday and soared more than 1% in just one trading period, challenging the 1.3115 resistance barrier, a new 10-month high. The sharp bullish run may drive the cable further up until the 1.3435 resistance handle.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

It is worth to mention that the currency pair hit our recommended target at 1.3050 and earned almost 100 pips (see our technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2ullpuz). Now, the price is moving slightly lower from the aforementioned 10-month resistance level and it may meet 1.3050 again. The RSI indicator managed to challenge the overbought area but it failed whilst the MACD oscillator created a bullish crossover with its trigger line.

GBPUSDDaily170717

3. USD/JPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The U.S. dollar printed a negative week versus the Japanese yen and is developing near its opening level on a monthly basis. The USD/JPY pair snapped the four consecutive winning sessions following the pullback on the 114.40 resistance handle. That was the second time the pair tried to surpass the latter level unsuccessfully.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

During last week, the price slipped below the 200-day SMA which was acting as strong support level and is now trading near 112.70 price level. The next support level to have in mind is the 111.70 which coincides with the 50 and 100 SMAs. RSI hit its mid-level and is pointing to the upside. MACD fell below its trigger line with strong momentum while it created a bearish crossover.

USDJPYDaily170717

Risk Disclosure

Trading Foreign Exchange and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Risk Disclosure

4. AUD/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

In the previous week, we have seen a sharp bullish movement in the AUD/USD pair which surged almost 3%. The Australian dollar recorded seven positive days in a row against the U.S. dollar after the bounce off the 0.7570 support level and penetrated the ascending weekly triangle to the upside which was holding since January.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The price hit our first recommended target at 0.7780, strong barrier, (see our technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2upOC8q) and moved higher at 0.7835, three-month high. Currently, the price is moving slightly lower approaching again the 0.7780 support level. The RSI indicator is holding in the overbought zone and is sloping down. On the other hand, the MACD oscillator is endorsing the scenario for further rising as it is moving with strong momentum in the positive area.

AUDUSDDaily170717

5.  S&P 500 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The S&P 500 index climbed more than 15% since November of 2016 and is posting the fourth positive month in a row. Over the last week, the index created another fresh all-time high at 2463 and continues the bullish movement after the pullback on 2032 support handle. Our expectation is a further incline move until a significant event drives the index lower.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

From a technical point of view, the RSI indicator is holding within the 50 and 70 levels but is moving with weak momentum over the last sessions. Additionally, the MACD oscillator surpassed the trigger line and is rising above its mid-level. The three simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving higher endorsing the thought for rising.

US500CashDaily170717

6. XAU/USD Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The precious metal covered some of the losses in the previous week and snapped two positive candles in a row as its weekly performance stood at 1.3%. Meanwhile, the price hit the $1,207 price level and posted a new four-month low while now jumped higher and met the $1,233 resistance level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

In addition, the XAU/USD pair surpassed successfully the 200-day SMA while it challenged the 200-weekly SMA which overlaps with the $1,233 resistance handle. Our forecast is a reverse of the rising movement as the latter level is a strong resistance obstacle and the price may touch the $1,207 support level. On the other side, if the yellow metal climbs above $1,233, it will open the door for $1,240 and the $1,251 which coincides with the 50 and 100 SMAs. RSI and MACD are rising in the negative territories.

XAUUSDDaily170717

7. WTI Crude Oil WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil had a declining move since January and during this month the price is trying to recover some of its losses. The oil is developing near its opening level on a monthly basis after the sharp sell-off in the previous months. The prior week added more than 6% after the significant rebound the $43.90 level.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Technically, on the short-term chart, the price is approaching the $47.40 resistance handle again and if there is a successful jump above it, will hit the 100-day SMA near $48.12. The RSI indicator is flattening in the positive path whilst the MACD oscillator entered into the bullish area and rose above its trigger line.

WTICrudeDaily170717

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Jul 17 – 21; ECB and BoJ Policy Meeting in the Week 

Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have their interest rate decisions this week, followed by speeches from the two central banks leaders. In addition, significant economic indicators will be released in the week ahead, like Eurozone’s and U.K.’s inflation rates.

The first day of the week starts with the Euro area’s CPI and the German Buba monthly report. The consumer prices are expected to have remained stable in June versus last month, in which they declined 0.1%. The headline CPI is expected to have kept the same pace of growth of 1.3%. Later in the day, New Zealand’s CPI for the second quarter is also coming out, while overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the last policy meeting.
EUCPI17072017

Tomorrow, a lot of economic indicators are scheduled for release. U.K. consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI) and retail price index (RPI) for June are expected. The headline CPI is expected to slow down to 2.8% in June versus 2.9% the previous month. Later on, ZEW survey for the economic sentiment for the Euro area and for Germany are coming out. German economic sentiment is expected to rick lower to 17.5 in July from 18.6 before, while current conditions are forecasted to remain stable at 88.0.

Going to the U.S., export and import price indices for June are coming out, as well as NAHB housing market index which is predicted to pick up at 68 versus 67 before.

On Wednesday, no major news or speeches are scheduled for the Euro area. Across the Atlantic, in the U.S., building permits and housing starts for June are coming out. During the night, attention will be turned to Australia, which will publish June’s employment report. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 5.6% from 5.5% before. During the night, Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, followed by the central bank’s semi-annual outlook report. They are expected to keep monetary policy on hold with interest rates at -0.1%.

On Thursday, German producer price index for June is expected to improve slightly to -0.1% versus -0.2% before. At 06:30 GMT, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will give a speech following central bank’s interest rate decision. From the U.K., retail sales for June are expected to be released.

After the release of Eurozone’s current account for May, European Central Bank will publish their interest and deposit rate decisions. The market expects the policymakers to keep on hold the main rates at 0% and -0.4% respectively. However, traders will pay attention to the ECB policy statement and press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi. Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence for July is forecasted to tick higher at -1.1 from -1.3 before.
ECB20072017

On Friday, there are no major indicators or speeches scheduled for U.S., U.K. and Eurozone and we expect a quiet day driven largely by technical factors. The only notable economic indicators are the Canadian inflation rate for June and retail sales for May.

Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have their interest rate decisions this week, followed by speeches from the two central banks leaders. In addition, significant economic indicators will be released in the week ahead, like Eurozone’s and U.K.’s inflation rates.

The market is preparing for the holiday season and traders close their positions before leaving. Most of the currency pairs are moving mainly because of technical reasons as the limited economic news fail to influence them.

Margin Trading is high risk and not suitable for all. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.