Barbara NICODEMOU

Market Analyst, JFD Brokers

Barbara Nicodemou joined JFD Brokers in 2015 as a Market Analyst for the strategy team at JFD Research.

Barbara focuses on analysis of a range of markets including Forex, Indices and Commodities. Her trading approach of the micro – macroeconomic view of the market in collaboration with the technical analysis, creates a trustworthy overview of the market's bias for medium and long-term investing opportunities.

She holds a Bachelor Degree of Mathematics from the University College of London and a Master's Degree in Business Mathematics at National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in collaboration with the Athens University of Economics and Business.

Monday, 25.09.2017, 07:30

Strategic Report, 2017 Newsletter 39

Published in Strategic Report

Technical Analysis

1. EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The euro remains virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar despite that it opened yesterday's session with a gap down. The EUR/USD pair is developing within a narrow range over the last four weeks with upper boundary the 1.2030 resistance level and lower boundary the 1.1820 support barrier. The price failed to challenge again the 32-month high at 1.2090 and struggled below it.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

From the technical point of view, the common currency pair is trading slightly above the 50-day SMA for more than four months, indicating for further upside potential move. On the other hand, on the daily timeframe, the technical indicators show an opposite thought. The RSI indicator is moving near its mid-level with weak momentum, whilst the MACD oscillator fell beneath its trigger line. Our expectation is to be neutral until the price exits the trading range. If the price jumps above 1.2030 will hit 1.2030 and then 1.2160 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level with high at 1.4000 and low at 1.0325). An alternative scenario is a slip below 1.1820 that will push the pair towards 1.1730 (38.2% Fibonacci level).

EURUSDDaily250917

2. NZD/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The NZD/USD is trading lower following the rebound on the 0.7430 resistance level, which had a strong upward spike. The commodity currency pair is recording a negative day today as it plummeted almost 1% so far. However, September performance is still positive for the pair.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Going to the daily timeframe, the 50-SMA is ready to create a bearish crossover with the 100-SMA signalling for more bearish movement. The MACD oscillator lies above the zero line with weak momentum, as well as the RSI indicator, which is sloping to the downside. Also, the stochastic oscillator is moving lower slightly above the 20 level. The next support level to have in mind is the 0.7180 barrier.

NZDUSDDaily250917

3. USD/CAD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The U.S. dollar completed three weak days in a row versus the Canadian dollar and failed to touch the 1.2390 barrier. The USD/CAD pair had a retracement over the last couple of weeks surging to 1.2390 resistance level adding more than 1.4% to its performance. Currently, the commodity currency pair is holding below the first support level of the JFD Pivot Point.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The next target to have in mind is the second support of the pivot point at 1.2230. On the other side, if the price jumps above 1.2390 will hit the 50-day SMA, which is near with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (high at 1.3795 and low at 1.2060), near 1.2460. On the short-term timeframe, the RSI indicator is trying to enter into the positive territory and MACD oscillator is rising in the negative area.

USDCADDaily250917

Risk Disclosure

Trading Foreign Exchange and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Risk Disclosure

4. EURO 50 Index WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The EURO 50 index surged more than 2.7% this month, snapping the four losing monthly sessions. The price has a bullish movement after the bounce off the 3362 support level and now is ready to approach the next resistance level at 3580. It is worth to mention that the week just passed was the fourth consecutive green week. 

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the daily timeframe, the price is developing well above the three simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200), while if the price slips below the 100-SMA will hit the 50-SMA near 3469. The MACD oscillator lies in the positive zone with flat momentum and the RSI indicator is pointing to the downside in the bullish path.

EURO50CashDaily250917

5.  XAG/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The white metal plunged more than 3% in September, after the strong pullback on the $18.20 resistance barrier, four-month high. Silver is creating a correction movement and is developing near the 100-day SMA, as well as near the $16.85 support level. Our expectation is a further decline to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (low at $14.30 and high at $18.20) at $16.71, at least.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

On the other hand, in case of a bullish movement, the XAG/USD pair will touch the 50-day SMA, near $17.18. It is worth to mention that the price sank below the 50 and 200 week SMAs, while it struggled near the 100-week SMA. On the daily timeframe, the RSI indicator fell into the bearish zone and the MACD oscillator dropped below the zero and trigger lines with stronger momentum than before.

XAGUSDDaily250917

6. Brent Crude Oil Weekly Outlook

REVIEW

The Brent Crude oil is recording the third straight bullish month, soaring more than 21% since June. The price, after the hit on the $44.50 support level, started an aggressive bullish run, reaching a new four-month high at $56.49 on Friday’s trading session. Our prediction is a slightly upward tendency until the $56.80 - $57.40 resistance zone.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

Having a look on the short-term chart, the 50-SMA is ready to post a bullish crossover with the 200-SMA indicating more rising. The MACD oscillator holds above the trigger line and is strengthening, whilst the RSI indicator is trying to enter the overbought zone, however, now is flattening near the 70 level.

BrentCrudeDaily250917

7. Coca-Cola Company WEEKLY OUTLOOK

REVIEW

The Coca-Cola company (NYSE: KO), which is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, is an American multinational beverage corporation. Its stock price is trading in a correction mode, recording the seventh bearish day and slipped beneath the 50-day SMA.

OUTLOOK (SCENARIO A / B)

The price is now approaching the $45.30 support handle, which overlaps with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level with low at $39.90 and high at $46.95. If the price drops below the latter level and the 100-day SMA, will open the way for the 38.2% fibo level, near $44.24. The MACD oscillator is falling and approaching the zero line. Also, the RSI indicator fell aggressively into the negative territory.

KODaily250917

FX Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Outlook: Sep 25 - 29; U.K. & U.S. GDP Ahead, E.U. CPI in Focus

The last week of September encloses important indicators for the future of the major economies. The U.S. and U.K. GDP will be released. In the Euro area, the CPI will be eyed ahead of ECB’s policy meeting in October, which may bring QE tapering.

The week starts with the German IFO Survey for September. All the component of the survey, business climate, current assessment, and expectations are expected to meet the latest figures of 115.9, 124.6 and 107.9 respectively. From the U.K., the Financial Policy Committee report which contains detailed analysis on the stability of the financial system, assessment of potential risks to financial stability and recommendations to protect and enhance the resilience of the UK financial system will be closely monitored by investors.

Later in the day, Fed’s William Dudley and Chares L. Evans will give public speeches while Dallas Fed manufacturing business index for September will be released. At 14:00 GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will have a press conference at the ECON Hearing at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium. During the European night, Bank of Japan will publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Tuesday’s economic calendar is very poor. In the morning, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals for August are expected to increase slightly to 41.7M from 41.6K before. From the U.S., new home sales for August will be released.

On Wednesday, the first economic indicator of the is the Nationwide housing prices for September and then attention will be paid to the final U.K. GDP for the second quarter. The British economy is forecasted to keep the pace of growth stable at 1.7% year-over-year the second quarter and 0.3% quarter-over-quarter. The U.S. durable goods orders for August are predicted to expand by 1.0% in August against a decline of 6.8% the previous month. U.S. pending home sales for August are coming out as well. At 21:00 GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep the interest rate on hold at 1.75%, though traders will keep a tab for the rate statement.

UKGDP27092017

Thursday begins with the German Gfk consumer confidence survey, which is expected to show a marginal increase to 11.0 in October from 10.9 before. After that, Eurozone’s various sentiment indicators are will be released. The services sentiment and industrial confidence for September are expected to remain unchanged at 14.9 and 5.1 respectively, while economic sentiment indicator ad business climate are forecasted to rise compared to the previous figure.

The German preliminary CPI report will be published and then attention will turn to the U.S. The GDP growth for the second quarter is predicted to come in line with the preliminary figure at 3% annualized. The personal consumption expenditures prices for Q2 is also coming out. The U.K. Gfk consumer confidence for September will be released, while later in the day, the focus will be in the Japanese data. National CPI and Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions are scheduled for release, as well as the unemployment rate and industrial production, all for August.

On Friday morning, German retail sales for August and unemployment rate for September are coming out. Eurozone’s preliminary inflation rate for September is expected to show an increase to 1.6% year-over-year against 1.5% in August, which can endorse speculations for ECB to tighten its monetary policy in October. From the U.S., personal income and spending for August, as well as the final Michigan consumer sentiment index for September will be released.

EUCPI29092017

The last week of September encloses important indicators for the future of the major economies. The U.S. and U.K. GDP will be released. In the Euro area, the CPI will be eyed ahead of ECB’s policy meeting in October, which may bring QE tapering.

Friday, 22.09.2017, 12:56

Canada CPI Aug 1.4% vs 1.5% yoy exp

Published in Forex
Friday, 22.09.2017, 07:43

AUD/USD Dropped Sharply & Met Our Target At 0.7950

Published in Forex

The Australian dollar plummeted below 0.7950 against the U.S. dollar and met our recommended target (see the technical analysis here: http://bit.ly/2fESMA4). The AUD/USD pair challenged the 0.8125 strong resistance level and the two-year-and-three-month high two weeks ago, and then it had another failed attempt to rise further on Wednesday.

Overnight, the RBA Governor’s comments pushed the pair severely lower, below the 50-day SMA. However, on the weekly timeframe, the pair is finding strong support on the 200-SMA, which is enough to push the price back to higher levels. Our expectation is Aussie to rebound on the 200-week SMA, which is located near its current level, and rise until 0.8065. The RSI indicator is heading upwards, suggesting a bullish move, however, the MACD stands a step above the zero level. 

AUDUSDDaily22092017.png

The XAU/USD pair, hit the $1,358 resistance level, before it started the bearish tendency for the third week in a row. The precious metal is plummeting more than 4% since last week with strong downward momentum. If the price drops below the aforementioned level will move towards the three simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200) on the weekly timeframe, which are holding near the $1,243 price level.

From the technical point of view, on the medium-term chart, the MACD oscillator lost its strong momentum and is falling slightly in the positive area. Moreover, the RSI indicator is sloping to the downside and the stochastic oscillator is moving downwards.

XAUUSDWeekly220917.png

Friday, 22.09.2017, 07:40

Nikkei 225 closes down -0.25% at 20,296.45

Published in Indices

Thursday was quiet in terms of economic indicators and most of the forex pairs had low volatility, though the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar were the big losers of the day.The U.S. dollar is retaining its post-FOMC gains versus the G10, while the Euro is rising.

Fed policy meeting was the focus of the day and then the BoJ interest rate decision overnight, that sent the USD/JPY above 112.70, meeting our recommended target. EUR/USD lost all the gains of the last six days yesterday, falling almost 1% in a single day.

The focus of the day is clearly Fed policy meeting. The interest rates are expected to be on hold, though market participants are looking forward for changes to the balance sheet. The U.S. dollar slipped back ahead of the announcements, pushing EUR/USD above 1.2000 and Dow Jones to new all-time highs during its sixth positive month in a row.

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